UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Smith.

Smith is rated at 1070 — 194 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Smith is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rua brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Smith the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Rua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Smith over Mauricio Rua. The model gives Smith a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Smith, but our model sees only 57%. That 4-point gap favoring Rua is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Corey Anderson (10-4) taking on Glover Teixeira (16-6). Anderson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Teixeira at 1596 versus Anderson at 1459. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Anderson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Anderson's striker game against Teixeira's all-rounder approach. Anderson brings a versatile approach, while Teixeira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Corey Anderson over Glover Teixeira. We're leaning Anderson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Anderson at 44% implied while our model sees 67% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Abu Azaitar (1-1) taking on Vitor Miranda (3-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Miranda.

There's a real Elo separation here: Miranda at 933 versus Azaitar at 804. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miranda throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Miranda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Azaitar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abu Azaitar over Vitor Miranda. We're leaning Azaitar here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Stefan Struve (13-10). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Tybura is rated at 1242 — 364 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Struve has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Stefan Struve. The model gives Tybura a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Tybura, but our model sees only 61%. That 5-point gap favoring Struve is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Danny Roberts (7-6) taking on David Zawada (1-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Zawada at 991 versus Roberts at 906. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Zawada is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zawada has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Roberts over David Zawada. We're leaning Roberts here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Nasrat Haqparast (10-4) taking on Marc Diakiese (7-7).

Haqparast is rated at 1235 — 184 points above Diakiese's 1050. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Haqparast rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diakiese throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Haqparast has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Nasrat Haqparast. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Diakiese at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Haqparast at 40% implied while our model sees 48% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Damir Hadzovic (4-5) taking on Nick Hein (4-3). Hadzovic is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Hadzovic carries a modest Elo edge (882 to 818), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hein throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Hein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damir Hadzovic over Nick Hein. The model gives Hadzovic a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hadzovic at 40% implied while our model sees 59% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Bartosz Fabinski (3-2) taking on Emil Meek (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Meek at 1005 versus Fabinski at 909. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Meek throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Fabinski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.5 more per 15 minutes. Fabinski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bartosz Fabinski over Emil Meek. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fabinski at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Fabinski at 41% implied while our model sees 55% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Nad Narimani (2-1) taking on Khalid Taha (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Narimani.

There's a real Elo separation here: Narimani at 941 versus Taha at 823. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taha throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Taha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Taha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nad Narimani over Khalid Taha. We're leaning Narimani here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 70% for Narimani, but our model sees only 65%. That 5-point gap favoring Taha is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Aleksandar Rakic (6-4) taking on Justin Ledet (3-3).

Rakic is rated at 1283 — 527 points above Ledet's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rakic's striker game against Ledet's all-rounder approach. Rakic brings a versatile approach, while Ledet is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ledet throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ledet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Ledet has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksandar Rakic over Justin Ledet. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rakic at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Rakic at 48% implied while our model sees 53% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Manny Bermudez (3-1) taking on Davey Grant (8-6). Bermudez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Grant is rated at 1200 — 241 points above Bermudez's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manny Bermudez over Davey Grant. The model gives Bermudez a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 72% for Bermudez, but our model sees only 65%. That 7-point gap favoring Grant is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Darko Stosic (1-2) taking on Jeremy Kimball (1-2). Stosic will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Stosic at 819, Kimball at 837. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kimball throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kimball is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Stosic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darko Stosic over Jeremy Kimball. We're leaning Stosic here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pingyuan Liu (2-1) taking on Damian Stasiak (2-3).

Liu carries a modest Elo edge (923 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stasiak throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stasiak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Liu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damian Stasiak over Pingyuan Liu. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stasiak at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.