UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Saturday, May 10, 2025·Montreal, Quebec, Canada·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✗✓✓✓✓✓✓✗✓✓✗✗
Main Card
WelterweightMISS
Jack Della Maddalena won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Maddalena 43%57% Muhammad
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
LEANMarket: 36% (+6.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -83(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Maddalena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Muhammad)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Valentina Shevchenko won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Shevchenko 56%44% Fiorot
Over/UnderOver 74%
Under 26%Over 74%
LEANMarket: 45% (+11.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -74(favors Fiorot)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Fiorot)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Shevchenko)
FeatherweightHIT
Aiemann Zahabi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zahabi 51%49% Aldo
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+12.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -148(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Zahabi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Aldo)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Natalia Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 74%26% Grasso
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+6.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -9(favors Grasso)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Grasso)
LightweightHIT
Benoit Saint Denis won by Submission (R2)
Denis 85%15% Prepolec
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 90% (-4.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +648(favors Denis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Denis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Denis)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Mike Malott won by KO/TKO (R2)
Malott 68%32% Radtke
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+3.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +83(favors Malott)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Malott)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Malott)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Jasmine Jasudavicius won by Submission (R1)
Jasudavicius 86%14% Andrade
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 71% (+14.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +20(favors Jasudavicius)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Jasudavicius)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Modestas Bukauskas won by Decision - Split (R3)
Bukauskas 38%62% Cutelaba
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 50% (-12.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -137(favors Cutelaba)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Cutelaba)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Navajo Stirling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stirling 82%18% Erslan
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+8.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +131(favors Stirling)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Stirling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Erslan)
Early Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Marc-Andre Barriault won by KO/TKO (R1)
Barriault 58%42% Silva
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Barriault)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Silva)
FeatherweightMISS
Daniel Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 47%53% Lee
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +428(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Santos)
BantamweightMISS
Bekzat Almakhan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Almakhan 33%67% Katona
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +39(favors Almakhan)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Katona)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Katona)