UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13).

Edwards is rated at 1596 — 542 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Edwards's wrestler game against Cerrone's knockout artist approach. Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leon Edwards over Donald Cerrone. The model is firm on this one: Edwards at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 69% implied while our model sees 84% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Tyson Pedro (6-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pedro at 1015 versus Preux at 917. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Preux's all-rounder game against Pedro's knockout artist approach. Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pedro is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Preux throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pedro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Tyson Pedro. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Preux at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jessica Eye (5-9) taking on Jessica-Rose Clark (4-4).

Eye is rated at 950 — 188 points above Clark's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Eye is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Clark brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Eye the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Eye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Eye over Jessica-Rose Clark. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Eye at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Eye at 39% implied while our model sees 53% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-6) taking on Daichi Abe (1-1).

Jingliang is rated at 1270 — 347 points above Abe's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Jingliang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Li Jingliang over Daichi Abe. We're leaning Jingliang here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Petr Yan (11-4) taking on Teruto Ishihara (3-4-1).

Yan is rated at 1869 — 1052 points above Ishihara's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ishihara throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ishihara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Teruto Ishihara. The model is firm on this one: Yan at 83%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-3-1) taking on Felipe Arantes (5-5-1). Arantes will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yadong is rated at 1548 — 622 points above Arantes's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Yadong is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Arantes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Arantes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arantes throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Arantes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Song Yadong over Felipe Arantes. The model gives Yadong a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Young (2-4) taking on Rolando Dy (1-2). Young will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dy carries a modest Elo edge (813 to 742), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dy throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Young is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Dy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rolando Dy over Shane Young. The model gives Dy a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Young, but our model sees only 43%. That 17-point gap favoring Dy is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Song Kenan (6-4) taking on Hector Aldana (0-2).

Kenan is rated at 1007 — 242 points above Aldana's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenan throws significantly more leather — a 56.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Song Kenan over Hector Aldana. We're leaning Kenan here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Shinsho Anzai (2-1). Matthews is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 240 points above Anzai's 1056. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anzai throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Shinsho Anzai. The model is firm on this one: Matthews at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 83% implied while our model sees 88% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yan Xiaonan (9-3) taking on Viviane Pereira (2-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Xiaonan.

Xiaonan is rated at 1412 — 449 points above Pereira's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Xiaonan throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Xiaonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Viviane Pereira over Yan Xiaonan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pereira at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Xiaonan at 39% implied while our model sees 50% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Matt Schnell (7-7) taking on Naoki Inoue (1-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Inoue at 992 versus Schnell at 899. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Inoue throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Schnell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Inoue has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Naoki Inoue over Matt Schnell. The model gives Inoue a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Schnell at 36% implied while our model sees 40% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Yuta Sasaki (4-4) taking on Jenel Lausa (1-2). Sasaki is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sasaki is rated at 1009 — 214 points above Lausa's 795. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sasaki throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sasaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Lausa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yuta Sasaki over Jenel Lausa. The model is firm on this one: Sasaki at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Sasaki at 70% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ji Yeon Kim (3-6) taking on Melinda Fabian (0-0-1). Kim will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fabian is rated at 930 — 207 points above Kim's 723. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fabian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ji Yeon Kim over Melinda Fabian. The model is firm on this one: Kim at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Kim at 63% implied while our model sees 77% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.