UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Leon Edwards (14-5) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-14).

Edwards is rated at 1747 — 509 points above Cerrone's 1238. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Edwards's wrestler game against Cerrone's knockout artist approach. Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leon Edwards over Donald Cerrone. The model is firm on this one: Edwards at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 69% implied while our model sees 87% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-13) taking on Tyson Pedro (6-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Preux at 1056, Pedro at 1033. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Preux's all-rounder game against Pedro's knockout artist approach. Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pedro is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Preux throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pedro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Tyson Pedro. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Preux at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jessica Eye (5-10) taking on Jessica-Rose Clark (4-5).

Eye is rated at 1060 — 325 points above Clark's 735. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Eye is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Clark brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Eye the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Eye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Eye over Jessica-Rose Clark. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Eye at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Eye at 39% implied while our model sees 51% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-7) taking on Daichi Abe (1-2).

Jingliang is rated at 1397 — 507 points above Abe's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Jingliang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Li Jingliang over Daichi Abe. We're leaning Jingliang here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Petr Yan (12-4) taking on Teruto Ishihara (3-5-1).

Yan is rated at 1857 — 1010 points above Ishihara's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ishihara throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ishihara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Teruto Ishihara. The model is firm on this one: Yan at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-4-1) taking on Felipe Arantes (5-6-1). Arantes will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yadong is rated at 1634 — 642 points above Arantes's 991. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Yadong is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Arantes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Arantes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arantes throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Arantes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Song Yadong over Felipe Arantes. The model gives Yadong a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Young (2-5) taking on Rolando Dy (1-3). Young will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dy carries a modest Elo edge (760 to 710), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dy throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Young is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Dy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rolando Dy over Shane Young. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dy at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Young, but our model sees only 48%. That 12-point gap favoring Dy is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Song Kenan (6-5) taking on Hector Aldana (0-3).

Kenan is rated at 1069 — 379 points above Aldana's 690. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenan throws significantly more leather — a 56.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Song Kenan over Hector Aldana. The model gives Kenan a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-8) taking on Shinsho Anzai (2-2). Matthews is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Matthews is rated at 1398 — 307 points above Anzai's 1091. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anzai throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Shinsho Anzai. The model is firm on this one: Matthews at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 83% implied while our model sees 87% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yan Xiaonan (9-4) taking on Viviane Pereira (2-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Xiaonan.

Xiaonan is rated at 1476 — 538 points above Pereira's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Xiaonan throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Xiaonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Viviane Pereira over Yan Xiaonan. The model gives Pereira a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Xiaonan at 39% implied while our model sees 43% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Matt Schnell (7-8) taking on Naoki Inoue (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Schnell at 989, Inoue at 987. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Inoue throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Schnell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Inoue has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Naoki Inoue over Matt Schnell. We're leaning Inoue here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 36% for Schnell, but our model sees only 30%. That 6-point gap favoring Inoue is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Yuta Sasaki (4-5) taking on Jenel Lausa (1-3). Sasaki is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sasaki is rated at 1042 — 327 points above Lausa's 715. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sasaki throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sasaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Lausa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yuta Sasaki over Jenel Lausa. We're leaning Sasaki here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ji Yeon Kim (3-7) taking on Melinda Fabian (0-1-1). Kim will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fabian is rated at 893 — 182 points above Kim's 711. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fabian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ji Yeon Kim over Melinda Fabian. We're leaning Kim here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Kim at 63% implied while our model sees 71% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.