UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Darren Till (6-4-1) taking on Stephen Thompson (12-8-1).

Thompson carries a modest Elo edge (1329 to 1296), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Till is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Till has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Till over Stephen Thompson. The model gives Till a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Till at 42% implied while our model sees 56% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Craig White (0-1). Magny will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Magny is rated at 1270 — 360 points above White's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Craig White. The model is firm on this one: Magny at 85%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Arnold Allen (11-2) taking on Mads Burnell (1-1).

Allen is rated at 1468 — 492 points above Burnell's 977. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Arnold Allen over Mads Burnell. We're leaning Allen here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Allen at 69% implied while our model sees 73% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Makwan Amirkhani (7-6) taking on Jason Knight (4-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Amirkhani at 965, Knight at 987. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Amirkhani looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Knight is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Amirkhani the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Knight throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Amirkhani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Amirkhani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason Knight over Makwan Amirkhani. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Knight at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Amirkhani at 39% implied while our model sees 49% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Claudio Silva (5-2) taking on Nordine Taleb (7-4). Taleb is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1053 to 976), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Silva's wrestler game against Taleb's striker approach. Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Taleb brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taleb throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Taleb has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nordine Taleb over Claudio Silva. We're leaning Taleb here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Silva at 21% implied while our model sees 28% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Darren Stewart (5-6) taking on Eric Spicely (2-4).

Stewart is rated at 940 — 212 points above Spicely's 727. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Stewart is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Spicely looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spicely the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stewart throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Spicely has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Stewart over Eric Spicely. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stewart at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Stewart at 40% implied while our model sees 50% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Tom Breese (5-2) taking on Daniel Kelly (6-3). Breese is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Breese at 1141 versus Kelly at 1052. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Breese throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Breese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Breese over Daniel Kelly. The model is firm on this one: Breese at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Breese at 77% implied while our model sees 82% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Lina Lansberg (4-6) taking on Gina Mazany (2-5). Mazany will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lansberg is rated at 871 — 175 points above Mazany's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lansberg's striker game against Mazany's wrestler approach. Lansberg brings a versatile approach, while Mazany looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lansberg throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mazany is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Mazany has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gina Mazany over Lina Lansberg. The model gives Mazany a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (1-1) taking on Brad Scott (3-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jr. at 869, Scott at 884. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scott throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Scott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlo Pedersoli Jr. over Brad Scott. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jr. at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Jr., but our model sees only 55%. That 3-point gap favoring Scott is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Molly McCann (7-6).

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 518 points above McCann's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McCann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.8 more per 15 minutes. McCann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Molly McCann over Gillian Robertson. The model gives McCann a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Robertson at 39% implied while our model sees 45% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Elias Theodorou (8-2) taking on Trevor Smith (5-6).

Theodorou is rated at 1270 — 335 points above Smith's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Theodorou rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Theodorou's striker game against Smith's wrestler approach. Theodorou brings a versatile approach, while Smith looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Theodorou throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elias Theodorou over Trevor Smith. The model is firm on this one: Theodorou at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Theodorou at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.