UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Demian Maia (22-10). Usman will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Usman is rated at 1828 — 457 points above Maia's 1371. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Demian Maia. The model is firm on this one: Usman at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Usman at 82% implied while our model sees 90% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (7-1) taking on Alexa Grasso (8-4-1).

Suarez is rated at 1531 — 155 points above Grasso's 1376. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Suarez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Grasso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Suarez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Suarez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Grasso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Alexa Grasso. The model is firm on this one: Suarez at 79%. The market implies 83% for Suarez, but our model sees only 79%. That 4-point gap favoring Grasso is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dominick Reyes (9-4) taking on Jared Cannonier (11-8). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Reyes.

There's a real Elo separation here: Reyes at 1529 versus Cannonier at 1426. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Reyes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Reyes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cannonier brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Reyes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dominick Reyes over Jared Cannonier. We're leaning Reyes here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Guido Cannetti (4-5) taking on Diego Rivas (2-1).

Cannetti carries a modest Elo edge (1005 to 960), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannetti throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannetti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Cannetti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Guido Cannetti over Diego Rivas. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cannetti at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Cannetti at 40% implied while our model sees 53% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Andrea Lee (5-8) taking on Veronica Hardy (4-5). Lee is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Hardy is rated at 1091 — 227 points above Lee's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrea Lee over Veronica Hardy. The model gives Lee a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Chad Laprise (6-3). Luque will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Luque is rated at 1250 — 323 points above Laprise's 927. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Luque's submission artist game against Laprise's striker approach. Luque is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Laprise brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Laprise throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Laprise has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Chad Laprise. We're leaning Luque here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Luque at 67% implied while our model sees 75% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Michel Prazeres (10-3) taking on Zak Cummings (9-4). Cummings is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Cummings is rated at 1357 — 201 points above Prazeres's 1157. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummings throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Prazeres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Prazeres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Prazeres over Zak Cummings. We're leaning Prazeres here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Prazeres at 37% implied while our model sees 72% — a 34-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-3) taking on Brandon Moreno (11-5-2). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pantoja at 1497 versus Moreno at 1410. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Pantoja looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pantoja the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pantoja throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Alexandre Pantoja. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for Pantoja, but our model sees only 43%. That 8-point gap favoring Moreno is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Poliana Botelho (3-3) taking on Syuri Kondo (1-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Botelho.

Botelho carries a modest Elo edge (859 to 798), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kondo throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Botelho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kondo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Syuri Kondo over Poliana Botelho. The model gives Kondo a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Botelho, but our model sees only 44%. That 19-point gap favoring Kondo is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Gabriel Benitez (7-7) taking on Humberto Bandenay (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Bandenay.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Benitez at 856, Bandenay at 838. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bandenay throws significantly more leather — a 7.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bandenay is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Benitez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Humberto Bandenay over Gabriel Benitez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bandenay at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Benitez, but our model sees only 45%. That 16-point gap favoring Bandenay is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Enrique Barzola (6-3) taking on Brandon Davis (2-6). Davis is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Barzola is rated at 1071 — 246 points above Davis's 825. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Barzola looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Barzola the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Barzola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Enrique Barzola over Brandon Davis. We're leaning Barzola here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Barzola at 67% implied while our model sees 74% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Frankie Saenz (5-4) taking on Henry Briones (1-3). Briones is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Saenz carries a modest Elo edge (888 to 808), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saenz throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Saenz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Briones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Saenz over Henry Briones. We're leaning Saenz here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Claudio Puelles (5-3) taking on Felipe Silva (1-1). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Puelles is rated at 1040 — 158 points above Silva's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Puelles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Puelles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudio Puelles over Felipe Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Puelles at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Puelles at 25% implied while our model sees 53% — a 27-point disagreement that could signal value.