UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Saturday, May 12, 2018·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil·13 fights
Model: 11/13(85%)
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Main Card
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by KO/TKO (R5)
Nunes 86%14% Pennington
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
STRONGMarket: 87% (-1.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +258(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pennington)
MiddleweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by Decision - Split (R3)
Gastelum 67%33% Souza
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -104(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Souza)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Mackenzie Dern won by Submission (R1)
Dern 75%25% Cooper
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 70% (+5.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +54(favors Dern)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Dern)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Cooper)
BantamweightHIT
John Lineker won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lineker 75%25% Kelleher
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+5.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +149(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Kelleher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Kelleher)
MiddleweightHIT
Lyoto Machida won by KO/TKO (R2)
Machida 81%19% Belfort
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
STRONGMarket: 68% (+13.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -47(favors Belfort)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Machida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Belfort)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Cezar Ferreira won by Submission (R1)
Ferreira 66%34% Roberson
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENTMarket: 50% (+16.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +118(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Roberson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Roberson)
HeavyweightMISS
Aleksei Oleinik won by Submission (R1)
Oleinik 45%55% Albini
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+4.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +81(favors Oleinik)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Albini)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Oleinik)
LightweightHIT
Davi Ramos won by Submission (R1)
Ramos 60%40% Hein
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 58% (+2.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -68(favors Hein)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Ramos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Ramos)
WelterweightMISS
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 40%60% Strickland
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 49% (-9.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Strickland)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Warlley Alves won by KO/TKO (R2)
Alves 77%23% Aliev
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 71% (+5.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +341(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Aliev)
MiddleweightHIT
Jack Hermansson won by KO/TKO (R3)
Hermansson 57%43% Leites
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 57% (-0.1% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -132(favors Leites)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Leites)
WelterweightHIT
Ramazan Emeev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Emeev 78%22% Mina
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 61% (+16.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -224(favors Mina)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Mina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Mina)
MiddleweightHIT
Markus Perez won by Submission (R1)
Perez 80%20% Bochnovic
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+7.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +148(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Perez)