UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Saturday, May 12, 2018·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Model Record: 11/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by KO/TKO (R5)
Nunes 89%11% Pennington
STRONGMarket: 87% (+2.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +192(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pennington)
MiddleweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by Decision - Split (R3)
Gastelum 67%33% Souza
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -59(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Souza)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Mackenzie Dern won by Submission (R1)
Dern 76%24% Cooper
STRONGMarket: 70% (+6.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +51(favors Dern)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Dern)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Cooper)
BantamweightHIT
John Lineker won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lineker 73%27% Kelleher
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+4.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +231(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Kelleher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Kelleher)
MiddleweightHIT
Lyoto Machida won by KO/TKO (R2)
Machida 82%18% Belfort
STRONGMarket: 68% (+14.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -62(favors Belfort)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Machida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Belfort)
MiddleweightHIT
Cezar Ferreira won by Submission (R1)
Ferreira 66%34% Roberson
CONFIDENTMarket: 50% (+16.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Roberson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Roberson)
HeavyweightMISS
Aleksei Oleinik won by Submission (R1)
Oleinik 48%52% Albini
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+7.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +62(favors Oleinik)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Albini)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Oleinik)
LightweightHIT
Davi Ramos won by Submission (R1)
Ramos 64%36% Hein
LEANMarket: 58% (+6.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -96(favors Hein)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Ramos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Ramos)
WelterweightMISS
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 38%62% Strickland
LEANMarket: 49% (-11.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -16(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Strickland)
WelterweightHIT
Warlley Alves won by KO/TKO (R2)
Alves 76%24% Aliev
STRONGMarket: 71% (+4.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +215(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Aliev)
MiddleweightHIT
Jack Hermansson won by KO/TKO (R3)
Hermansson 64%36% Leites
LEANMarket: 57% (+7.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -143(favors Leites)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Leites)
WelterweightHIT
Ramazan Emeev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Emeev 76%24% Mina
STRONGMarket: 61% (+14.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -158(favors Mina)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Mina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Mina)
MiddleweightHIT
Markus Perez won by Submission (R1)
Perez 79%21% Bochnovic
STRONGMarket: 73% (+6.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +79(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Perez)