UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Justin Gaethje (9-5).

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 166 points above Poirier's 1681. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Poirier's all-rounder game against Gaethje's striker approach. Poirier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gaethje brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Gaethje has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Justin Gaethje. The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Poirier at 53% implied while our model sees 60% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-9) taking on Carlos Condit (9-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Condit.

Condit is rated at 1165 — 231 points above Oliveira's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Condit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Condit throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Condit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Carlos Condit. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Oliveira, but our model sees only 57%. That 6-point gap favoring Condit is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-4) taking on Marvin Vettori (9-7-1). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Adesanya is rated at 1559 — 280 points above Vettori's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Adesanya's striker game against Vettori's all-rounder approach. Adesanya brings a versatile approach, while Vettori is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Adesanya throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vettori is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Marvin Vettori. The model gives Adesanya a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 68% for Adesanya, but our model sees only 56%. That 13-point gap favoring Vettori is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8) taking on Cortney Casey (6-8). Casey is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Waterson-Gomez at 908, Casey at 904. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Casey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cortney Casey over Michelle Waterson-Gomez. We're leaning Casey here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-11). Junior is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Junior at 1144, Boetsch at 1174. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Junior's wrestler game against Boetsch's striker approach. Junior looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Boetsch brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Junior has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Tim Boetsch. The model is firm on this one: Junior at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Junior at 69% implied while our model sees 77% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Muslim Salikhov (9-4) taking on Ricky Rainey (0-1). Rainey is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Salikhov is rated at 1183 — 374 points above Rainey's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Salikhov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salikhov throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rainey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rainey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muslim Salikhov over Ricky Rainey. The model gives Salikhov a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features John Moraga (8-5) taking on Wilson Reis (7-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moraga at 1166 versus Reis at 1083. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Moraga rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraga throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Reis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Moraga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Moraga over Wilson Reis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moraga at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Moraga at 47% implied while our model sees 51% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Krzysztof Jotko (11-5). Jotko will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jotko is rated at 1222 — 297 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tavares's striker game against Jotko's all-rounder approach. Tavares brings a versatile approach, while Jotko is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jotko throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jotko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Krzysztof Jotko. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tavares at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Tavares at 48% implied while our model sees 55% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Dan Moret (0-2). Moret is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Burns is rated at 1379 — 581 points above Moret's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Moret has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Dan Moret. The model is firm on this one: Burns at 87%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Lauren Mueller (1-2) taking on Shana Dobson (2-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Mueller at 837, Dobson at 848. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dobson throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dobson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mueller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shana Dobson over Lauren Mueller. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dobson at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Mueller, but our model sees only 50%. That 9-point gap favoring Dobson is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Dhiego Lima (4-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Okami at 1061 versus Lima at 943. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yushin Okami over Dhiego Lima. We're leaning Okami here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Okami at 53% implied while our model sees 67% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Adam Wieczorek (2-0) taking on Arjan Bhullar (2-1). Wieczorek is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bhullar at 1137 versus Wieczorek at 1037. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wieczorek throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Bhullar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Bhullar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Arjan Bhullar over Adam Wieczorek. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bhullar at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Wieczorek at 24% implied while our model sees 45% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alejandro Perez (8-3-1) taking on Matthew Lopez (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Perez at 1082 versus Lopez at 999. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Perez's striker game against Lopez's wrestler approach. Perez brings a versatile approach, while Lopez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alejandro Perez over Matthew Lopez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Perez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 49% implied while our model sees 53% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Luke Sanders (3-4) taking on Patrick Williams (1-2). Williams is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Sanders carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 812), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanders throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Sanders over Patrick Williams. The model is firm on this one: Sanders at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Sanders at 79% implied while our model sees 84% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.