UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Saturday, April 14, 2018·Glendale, Arizona, USA·14 fights
Model: 12/14(86%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Dustin Poirier won by KO/TKO (R4)
Poirier 64%36% Gaethje
Over/UnderOver 71%
Under 29%Over 71%
LEANMarket: 53% (+11.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +313(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Poirier)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Oliveira won by Submission (R2)
Oliveira 65%35% Condit
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+2.8% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -42(favors Condit)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Condit)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Oliveira)
MiddleweightHIT
Israel Adesanya won by Decision - Split (R3)
Adesanya 59%41% Vettori
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
LEANMarket: 68% (-9.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +7(favors Adesanya)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Adesanya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Vettori)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Michelle Waterson-Gomez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Waterson-Gomez 41%59% Casey
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -13(favors Casey)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Waterson-Gomez)
MiddleweightHIT
Antonio Carlos Junior won by Submission (R1)
Junior 82%18% Boetsch
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+12.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -121(favors Boetsch)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Junior)
WelterweightHIT
Muslim Salikhov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Salikhov 65%35% Rainey
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 64% (+0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -78(favors Rainey)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Salikhov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rainey)
Prelims
FlyweightMISS
John Moraga won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moraga 49%51% Reis
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+1.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +38(favors Moraga)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Moraga)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.5(favors Reis)
MiddleweightHIT
Brad Tavares won by KO/TKO (R3)
Tavares 52%48% Jotko
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+3.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +219(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Jotko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Jotko)
LightweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by KO/TKO (R2)
Burns 85%15% Moret
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 84% (+1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +323(favors Burns)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Burns)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Lauren Mueller won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mueller 50%50% Dobson
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-7.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -191(favors Dobson)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Dobson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Dobson)
WelterweightHIT
Yushin Okami won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Okami 70%30% Lima
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENTMarket: 53% (+17.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +668(favors Okami)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Lima)
HeavyweightHIT
Adam Wieczorek won by Submission (R2)
Wieczorek 51%49% Bhullar
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UPMarket: 24% (+27.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -54(favors Bhullar)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Wieczorek)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Bhullar)
BantamweightHIT
Alejandro Perez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Perez 57%43% Lopez
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 49% (+7.8% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Lopez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Lopez)
BantamweightHIT
Luke Sanders won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanders 88%12% Williams
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+8.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -55(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Sanders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.9(favors Williams)