UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Al Iaquinta (9-5).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 865 points above Iaquinta's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Nurmagomedov's wrestler game against Iaquinta's striker approach. Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Iaquinta brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iaquinta throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Al Iaquinta. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Nurmagomedov at 85% implied while our model sees 93% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4).

Namajunas is rated at 1421 — 229 points above Jedrzejczyk's 1192. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Namajunas's wrestler game against Jedrzejczyk's striker approach. Namajunas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jedrzejczyk brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jedrzejczyk throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Namajunas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Jedrzejczyk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Joanna Jedrzejczyk. The model gives Namajunas a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Namajunas at 48% implied while our model sees 59% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Calvin Kattar (7-7).

Moicano is rated at 1542 — 310 points above Kattar's 1231. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kattar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moicano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kattar throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Calvin Kattar. The model gives Moicano a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moicano at 49% implied while our model sees 58% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Zabit Magomedsharipov (5-0) taking on Kyle Bochniak (2-4). Magomedsharipov is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Magomedsharipov is rated at 1494 — 631 points above Bochniak's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedsharipov rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Magomedsharipov's wrestler game against Bochniak's striker approach. Magomedsharipov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bochniak brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedsharipov throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomedsharipov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Bochniak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zabit Magomedsharipov over Kyle Bochniak. The model is firm on this one: Magomedsharipov at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Gruetzemacher (3-3) taking on Joe Lauzon (14-12). Lauzon is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Lauzon carries a modest Elo edge (1036 to 1001), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Gruetzemacher's striker game against Lauzon's all-rounder approach. Gruetzemacher brings a versatile approach, while Lauzon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gruetzemacher throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Gruetzemacher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Gruetzemacher over Joe Lauzon. The model gives Gruetzemacher a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Gruetzemacher at 42% implied while our model sees 56% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9) taking on Felice Herrig (5-4).

Kowalkiewicz carries a modest Elo edge (871 to 822), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Kowalkiewicz's striker game against Herrig's all-rounder approach. Kowalkiewicz brings a versatile approach, while Herrig is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Herrig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Felice Herrig. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kowalkiewicz at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 64% for Kowalkiewicz, but our model sees only 53%. That 10-point gap favoring Herrig is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-4) taking on Evan Dunham (11-8-1).

Aubin-Mercier carries a modest Elo edge (1070 to 1019), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Aubin-Mercier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dunham is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Aubin-Mercier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Aubin-Mercier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Dunham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier over Evan Dunham. The model gives Aubin-Mercier a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Aubin-Mercier at 44% implied while our model sees 65% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-5) taking on Bec Rawlings (2-4). Evans-Smith is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Evans-Smith at 758, Rawlings at 787. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Evans-Smith's striker game against Rawlings's all-rounder approach. Evans-Smith brings a versatile approach, while Rawlings is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evans-Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans-Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Evans-Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ashlee Evans-Smith over Bec Rawlings. We're leaning Evans-Smith here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Devin Clark (8-8) taking on Mike Rodriguez (2-4). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Clark at 944 versus Rodriguez at 810. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Rodriguez over Devin Clark. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.