UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Robbie Lawler (14-10). Lawler is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Anjos at 1282, Lawler at 1297. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Anjos's all-rounder game against Lawler's striker approach. Anjos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lawler brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robbie Lawler over Rafael Dos Anjos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lawler at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Josh Emmett (10-5) taking on Ricardo Lamas (10-6).

Emmett carries a modest Elo edge (1356 to 1285), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Emmett's striker game against Lamas's all-rounder approach. Emmett brings a versatile approach, while Lamas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmett throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Emmett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Lamas over Josh Emmett. We're leaning Lamas here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7) taking on Mike Perry (7-7). Ponzinibbio is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ponzinibbio at 1177 versus Perry at 1066. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Perry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio over Mike Perry. The model gives Ponzinibbio a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Ponzinibbio, but our model sees only 58%. That 3-point gap favoring Perry is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Misha Cirkunov (6-6).

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 729 points above Cirkunov's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Teixeira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cirkunov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cirkunov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cirkunov throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Cirkunov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Misha Cirkunov over Glover Teixeira. We're leaning Cirkunov here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 39% for Teixeira, but our model sees only 29%. That 10-point gap favoring Cirkunov is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Jared Cannonier (11-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Blachowicz.

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 152 points above Cannonier's 1426. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Blachowicz's all-rounder game against Cannonier's striker approach. Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cannonier brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Cannonier over Jan Blachowicz. We're leaning Cannonier here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Blachowicz, but our model sees only 33%. That 3-point gap favoring Cannonier is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Julian Marquez (3-4) taking on Darren Stewart (5-6).

Stewart is rated at 940 — 279 points above Marquez's 660. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Marquez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stewart is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Marquez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stewart throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Marquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julian Marquez over Darren Stewart. The model is firm on this one: Marquez at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Chad Laprise (6-3) taking on Galore Bofando (1-0).

Bofando carries a modest Elo edge (985 to 927), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Laprise throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bofando is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.6 more per 15 minutes. Bofando has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chad Laprise over Galore Bofando. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Laprise at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Laprise, but our model sees only 50%. That 7-point gap favoring Bofando is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Nordine Taleb (7-4) taking on Danny Roberts (7-6).

Taleb carries a modest Elo edge (976 to 906), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Taleb's striker game against Roberts's all-rounder approach. Taleb brings a versatile approach, while Roberts is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Taleb is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Taleb has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nordine Taleb over Danny Roberts. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Taleb at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Taleb, but our model sees only 54%. That 5-point gap favoring Roberts is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features John Makdessi (11-8) taking on Abel Trujillo (6-3).

Trujillo carries a modest Elo edge (1031 to 989), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Makdessi's striker game against Trujillo's all-rounder approach. Makdessi brings a versatile approach, while Trujillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Trujillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Makdessi over Abel Trujillo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Makdessi at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Makdessi at 39% implied while our model sees 53% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Alessio Di Chirico (4-6) taking on Oluwale Bamgbose (1-3). Bamgbose will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Chirico at 788, Bamgbose at 776. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chirico throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chirico is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Chirico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessio Di Chirico over Oluwale Bamgbose. The model gives Chirico a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Chirico at 54% implied while our model sees 63% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jordan Mein (4-4) taking on Erick Silva (7-7).

Mein is rated at 1192 — 241 points above Silva's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mein throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Mein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Mein over Erick Silva. We're leaning Mein here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Mein at 58% implied while our model sees 69% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.