UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Saturday, December 9, 2017·Fresno, California, USA
Model Record: 6/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightMISS
Brian Ortega won by Submission (R2)
Ortega 45%55% Swanson
LEANMarket: 51% (-6.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -43(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Swanson)
FeatherweightMISS
Gabriel Benitez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benitez 27%73% Knight
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (+0.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -300(favors Knight)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Knight)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Knight)
BantamweightMISS
Marlon Moraes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Moraes 34%66% Sterling
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (-23.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -254(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Sterling)
LightweightMISS
Scott Holtzman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holtzman 46%54% Horcher
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-9.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -2(favors Horcher)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Holtzman)
MiddleweightHIT
Eryk Anders won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anders 90%10% Perez
STRONGMarket: 79% (+11.1% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +160(favors Anders)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.9(favors Anders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.2(favors Anders)
BantamweightHIT
Benito Lopez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lopez 56%44% Morales
LEANMarket: 53% (+2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +50(favors Lopez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Morales)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Alexis Davis won by Decision - Split (R3)
Davis 57%43% Carmouche
LEANMarket: 43% (+14.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Carmouche)
BantamweightMISS
Andre Soukhamthath won by KO/TKO (R2)
Soukhamthath 26%74% Sanders
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (+0.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -192(favors Sanders)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.2(favors Sanders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Sanders)
BantamweightMISS
Alex Perez won by Submission (R2)
Perez 41%59% Tomas
LEAN
→Elo gap: +85(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Tomas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Tomas)
BantamweightMISS
Frankie Saenz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Saenz 38%62% Dvalishvili
LEANMarket: 38% (+0.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -75(favors Dvalishvili)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Saenz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Saenz)
BantamweightHIT
Alejandro Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 66%34% Alcantara
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +35(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Alcantara)
LightweightHIT
Davi Ramos won by Submission (R3)
Ramos 84%16% Gruetzemacher
STRONGMarket: 77% (+6.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -54(favors Gruetzemacher)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Gruetzemacher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gruetzemacher)
MiddleweightHIT
Trevin Giles won by KO/TKO (R3)
Giles 74%26% Neto
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +50(favors Giles)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Giles)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.9(favors Giles)