UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura
Saturday, November 18, 2017·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia·13 fights
Model: 10/13(77%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✗✗✓✓✓✓✗✓✓✓✓✓
Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Fabricio Werdum won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Werdum 68%32% Tybura
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-6.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +279(favors Werdum)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Tybura)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Jessica-Rose Clark won by Decision - Split (R3)
Clark 45%55% Rawlings
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+0.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +115(favors Clark)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Rawlings)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Rawlings)
WelterweightMISS
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Split (R3)
Muhammad 40%60% Means
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 34% (+5.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -14(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Muhammad)
WelterweightHIT
Jake Matthews won by Decision - Split (R3)
Matthews 60%40% Velickovic
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 56% (+4.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Velickovic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Matthews)
MiddleweightHIT
Elias Theodorou won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Theodorou 81%19% Kelly
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+9.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -51(favors Kelly)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Kelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Kelly)
Catch WeightHIT
Alexander Volkanovski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Volkanovski 75%25% Young
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONG
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +238(favors Volkanovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.2(favors Volkanovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Volkanovski)
Prelims
FlyweightHIT
Ryan Benoit won by KO/TKO (R3)
Benoit 63%37% Mokhtarian
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 72% (-9.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +222(favors Benoit)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Benoit)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Mokhtarian)
LightweightMISS
Nik Lentz won by Submission (R2)
Lentz 37%63% Brooks
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 20% (+17.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +217(favors Lentz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Brooks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Lentz)
HeavyweightHIT
Tai Tuivasa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tuivasa 72%28% Coulter
Over/UnderUnder 64%
Under 64%Over 36%
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+9.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +326(favors Tuivasa)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Coulter)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Coulter)
LightweightHIT
Frank Camacho won by Decision - Split (R3)
Camacho 57%43% Brown
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEANMarket: 55% (+2.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -52(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Camacho)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Nadia Kassem won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kassem 60%40% Chambers
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 62% (-1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +57(favors Kassem)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Chambers)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Chambers)
FlyweightHIT
Eric Shelton won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Shelton 82%18% Lausa
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+5.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -110(favors Lausa)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Lausa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Shelton)
HeavyweightHIT
Adam Wieczorek won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wieczorek 78%22% Hamilton
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
STRONGMarket: 60% (+18.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +253(favors Wieczorek)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Hamilton)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Hamilton)