UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura
Saturday, November 18, 2017·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Fabricio Werdum won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Werdum 63%37% Tybura
LEANMarket: 74% (-11.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +362(favors Werdum)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Tybura)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Jessica-Rose Clark won by Decision - Split (R3)
Clark 38%62% Rawlings
LEANMarket: 44% (-5.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +82(favors Clark)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Rawlings)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Rawlings)
WelterweightMISS
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Split (R3)
Muhammad 27%73% Means
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-7.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Muhammad)
WelterweightHIT
Jake Matthews won by Decision - Split (R3)
Matthews 65%35% Velickovic
LEANMarket: 56% (+8.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -42(favors Velickovic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Matthews)
MiddleweightHIT
Elias Theodorou won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Theodorou 77%23% Kelly
STRONGMarket: 72% (+4.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -35(favors Kelly)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Kelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Kelly)
Catch WeightHIT
Alexander Volkanovski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Volkanovski 72%28% Young
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +165(favors Volkanovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.2(favors Volkanovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Volkanovski)
FlyweightHIT
Ryan Benoit won by KO/TKO (R3)
Benoit 70%30% Mokhtarian
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-2.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +120(favors Benoit)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Benoit)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Mokhtarian)
LightweightMISS
Nik Lentz won by Submission (R2)
Lentz 33%67% Brooks
CONFIDENTMarket: 20% (+13.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +171(favors Lentz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Brooks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Lentz)
HeavyweightHIT
Tai Tuivasa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tuivasa 68%32% Coulter
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +200(favors Tuivasa)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Coulter)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Coulter)
LightweightMISS
Frank Camacho won by Decision - Split (R3)
Camacho 42%58% Brown
LEANMarket: 55% (-12.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -27(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Camacho)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Nadia Kassem won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kassem 59%41% Chambers
LEANMarket: 62% (-2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +55(favors Kassem)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Chambers)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Chambers)
FlyweightHIT
Eric Shelton won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Shelton 84%16% Lausa
STRONGMarket: 76% (+8.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -88(favors Lausa)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Lausa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Shelton)
HeavyweightHIT
Adam Wieczorek won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wieczorek 75%25% Hamilton
STRONGMarket: 60% (+15.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +245(favors Wieczorek)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Hamilton)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Hamilton)