UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Anthony Pettis (10-9).

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 170 points above Pettis's 1512. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Poirier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Anthony Pettis. The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Poirier at 49% implied while our model sees 56% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-12). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Brown carries a modest Elo edge (1201 to 1139), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Brown's all-rounder game against Sanchez's striker approach. Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sanchez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Brown over Diego Sanchez. The model is firm on this one: Brown at 78%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Junior Albini (1-3). Arlovski will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Arlovski carries a modest Elo edge (858 to 818), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albini throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Albini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Albini over Andrei Arlovski. The model is firm on this one: Albini at 81%. The market implies 24% for Arlovski, but our model sees only 19%. That 5-point gap favoring Albini is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Cezar Ferreira (9-5) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-11). Ferreira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Marquardt carries a modest Elo edge (1064 to 1033), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Ferreira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Marquardt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ferreira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cezar Ferreira over Nate Marquardt. The model is firm on this one: Ferreira at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Ferreira at 72% implied while our model sees 78% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on Matthew Lopez (2-3). Lopez is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Assuncao at 1099 versus Lopez at 999. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Assuncao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lopez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lopez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raphael Assuncao over Matthew Lopez. We're leaning Assuncao here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Joe Lauzon (14-12). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Lauzon.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lauzon at 1036 versus Guida at 926. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lauzon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Clay Guida. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lauzon at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 52% for Guida, but our model sees only 45%. That 7-point gap favoring Lauzon is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Moraes (5-5) taking on John Dodson (10-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Moraes.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dodson at 1256 versus Moraes at 1155. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Moraes's all-rounder game against Dodson's striker approach. Moraes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dodson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dodson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Dodson over Marlon Moraes. The model gives Dodson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Moraes, but our model sees only 44%. That 5-point gap favoring Dodson is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (7-1) taking on Viviane Pereira (2-1). Suarez is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Suarez is rated at 1531 — 568 points above Pereira's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Suarez throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 11.6 more per 15 minutes. Suarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Viviane Pereira. The model gives Suarez a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 73% for Suarez, but our model sees only 63%. That 10-point gap favoring Pereira is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Sage Northcutt (5-2) taking on Michel Quinones (0-1).

Northcutt is rated at 1249 — 427 points above Quinones's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Northcutt throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Northcutt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Northcutt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sage Northcutt over Michel Quinones. We're leaning Northcutt here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Northcutt at 62% implied while our model sees 75% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Nina Nunes (4-4) taking on Angela Hill (13-15).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nunes at 1155 versus Hill at 1074. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Nunes's all-rounder game against Hill's striker approach. Nunes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hill brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Angela Hill over Nina Nunes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hill at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 37% implied while our model sees 46% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Court McGee (11-12).

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 777 points above McGee's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Strickland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McGee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving McGee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Strickland over Court McGee. The model is firm on this one: Strickland at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Strickland at 72% implied while our model sees 78% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jake Collier (5-8) taking on Marcel Fortuna (1-1). Collier is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Fortuna at 923 versus Collier at 794. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fortuna throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Collier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Fortuna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcel Fortuna over Jake Collier. The model gives Fortuna a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Collier at 31% implied while our model sees 36% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Karl Roberson (4-5) taking on Darren Stewart (5-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Stewart at 940 versus Roberson at 817. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stewart throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Roberson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karl Roberson over Darren Stewart. The model gives Roberson a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.