UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Saturday, November 11, 2017·Norfolk, Virginia, USA·13 fights
Model: 11/13(85%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Dustin Poirier won by KO/TKO (R3)
Poirier 59%41% Pettis
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 49% (+10.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -43(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Poirier)
WelterweightHIT
Matt Brown won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brown 72%28% Sanchez
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-4.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +52(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Sanchez)
HeavyweightMISS
Andrei Arlovski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Arlovski 18%82% Albini
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
STRONGMarket: 24% (-6.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +18(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Albini)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Arlovski)
MiddleweightHIT
Cezar Ferreira won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ferreira 80%20% Marquardt
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+8.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Marquardt)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Marquardt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Ferreira)
BantamweightHIT
Raphael Assuncao won by KO/TKO (R3)
Assuncao 82%18% Lopez
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+6.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +164(favors Assuncao)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Assuncao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Lopez)
LightweightHIT
Clay Guida won by KO/TKO (R1)
Guida 53%47% Lauzon
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (+0.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -25(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Guida)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Marlon Moraes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moraes 57%43% Dodson
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 49% (+8.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -479(favors Dodson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Dodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Dodson)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tatiana Suarez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Suarez 56%44% Pereira
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 73% (-16.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -57(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Suarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +11.6(favors Suarez)
LightweightHIT
Sage Northcutt won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Northcutt 74%26% Quinones
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+12.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +241(favors Northcutt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Northcutt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Northcutt)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Nina Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nunes 54%46% Hill
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+16.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +85(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Nunes)
WelterweightHIT
Sean Strickland won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Strickland 77%23% McGee
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+5.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +343(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors McGee)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Jake Collier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Collier 34%66% Fortuna
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (+3.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -115(favors Fortuna)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Fortuna)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Collier)
MiddleweightHIT
Karl Roberson won by Submission (R1)
Roberson 62%38% Stewart
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 66% (-4.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +83(favors Roberson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Stewart)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Stewart)