UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Darren Till (6-5-1) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-14).

Till is rated at 1425 — 188 points above Cerrone's 1238. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Till brings a versatile approach, while Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Cerrone the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Till has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Till over Donald Cerrone. We're leaning Till here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Till at 42% implied while our model sees 73% — a 32-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-10) taking on Jodie Esquibel (0-4).

Kowalkiewicz is rated at 940 — 319 points above Esquibel's 621. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Esquibel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Esquibel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jodie Esquibel. The model is firm on this one: Kowalkiewicz at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Kowalkiewicz at 81% implied while our model sees 89% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-2) taking on Devin Clark (8-9). Blachowicz is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Blachowicz is rated at 1703 — 630 points above Clark's 1073. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Blachowicz's all-rounder game against Clark's striker approach. Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Clark brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devin Clark over Jan Blachowicz. The model gives Clark a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 42% for Blachowicz, but our model sees only 39%. That 3-point gap favoring Clark is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Oskar Piechota (2-3) taking on Jonathan Wilson (1-3).

Piechota carries a modest Elo edge (793 to 733), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilson throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Piechota has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oskar Piechota over Jonathan Wilson. The model is firm on this one: Piechota at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Piechota at 64% implied while our model sees 78% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Marcin Held (1-3) taking on Nasrat Haqparast (10-5).

Haqparast is rated at 1321 — 356 points above Held's 966. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Haqparast has won 5 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Held throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Held is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Haqparast has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Held over Nasrat Haqparast. The model is firm on this one: Held at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Held at 77% implied while our model sees 80% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brian Kelleher (8-9) taking on Damian Stasiak (2-4). Stasiak will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kelleher at 895, Stasiak at 891. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelleher throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelleher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Kelleher over Damian Stasiak. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kelleher at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Ramazan Emeev (5-3) taking on Sam Alvey (10-13-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Alvey.

Emeev is rated at 1121 — 259 points above Alvey's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Emeev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Emeev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Emeev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramazan Emeev over Sam Alvey. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Emeev at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Emeev, but our model sees only 54%. That 6-point gap favoring Alvey is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (13-12) taking on Artem Lobov (2-5). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Fili is rated at 1176 — 161 points above Lobov's 1015. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Artem Lobov. We're leaning Fili here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Fili at 62% implied while our model sees 71% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Warlley Alves (8-8) taking on Salim Touahri (0-3).

Alves is rated at 1045 — 199 points above Touahri's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Touahri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Warlley Alves over Salim Touahri. We're leaning Alves here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Alves, but our model sees only 70%. That 3-point gap favoring Touahri is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Aspen Ladd (4-3) taking on Lina Lansberg (4-7).

Ladd is rated at 1175 — 266 points above Lansberg's 909. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ladd's wrestler game against Lansberg's striker approach. Ladd looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lansberg brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lansberg throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lansberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ladd has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aspen Ladd over Lina Lansberg. The model is firm on this one: Ladd at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Ladd at 69% implied while our model sees 75% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Josh Emmett (10-7) taking on Felipe Arantes (5-6-1). Arantes is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Emmett is rated at 1437 — 446 points above Arantes's 991. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Emmett's striker game against Arantes's wrestler approach. Emmett brings a versatile approach, while Arantes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmett throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Emmett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Emmett over Felipe Arantes. We're leaning Emmett here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.