UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Saturday, October 7, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 5/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Submission (R3)
Ferguson 65%35% Lee
LEANMarket: 71% (-6.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Lee)
FlyweightHIT
Demetrious Johnson won by Submission (R5)
Johnson 90%10% Borg
STRONGMarket: 90% (+0.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +385(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Johnson)
HeavyweightHIT
Fabricio Werdum won by Submission (R1)
Werdum 69%31% Harris
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +491(favors Werdum)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Werdum)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Mara Romero Borella won by Submission (R1)
Borella 42%58% Faria
LEANMarket: 34% (+7.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Faria)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Faria)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Faria)
Lightweight
Dariush 66%34% Dunham
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-0.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Dunham)
BantamweightHIT
Cody Stamann won by Decision - Split (R3)
Stamann 57%43% Duquesnoy
LEANMarket: 40% (+17.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -58(favors Duquesnoy)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Duquesnoy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +8.0(favors Stamann)
Lightweight
Vannata 52%48% Green
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-11.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -67(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Vannata)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Green)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Poliana Botelho won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Botelho 50%50% Gonzalez
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-9.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +79(favors Botelho)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Gonzalez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Gonzalez)
FlyweightMISS
Matt Schnell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Schnell 35%65% Beltran
LEANMarket: 51% (-15.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -66(favors Beltran)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Schnell)
FlyweightMISS
John Moraga won by KO/TKO (R1)
Moraga 40%60% Magomed
LEAN
→Elo gap: +3(favors Moraga)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Magomed)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Magomed)
MiddleweightHIT
Brad Tavares won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tavares 63%37% Leites
LEANMarket: 62% (+0.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -86(favors Leites)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Leites)