UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Sergio Pettis (8-5) taking on Brandon Moreno (11-5-2).

Moreno is rated at 1410 — 175 points above Pettis's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Sergio Pettis. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alexa Grasso (8-4-1) taking on Randa Markos (6-10-1). Grasso will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Grasso is rated at 1376 — 402 points above Markos's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grasso throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Grasso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexa Grasso over Randa Markos. We're leaning Grasso here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Grasso at 60% implied while our model sees 73% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Niko Price (8-9) taking on Alan Jouban (7-5). Price will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jouban is rated at 1168 — 352 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Price's all-rounder game against Jouban's striker approach. Price is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jouban brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jouban throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Price has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Niko Price over Alan Jouban. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Price at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Price at 39% implied while our model sees 50% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Humberto Bandenay (1-2) taking on Martin Bravo (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Bandenay.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bandenay at 838 versus Bravo at 748. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bravo throws significantly more leather — a 8.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bravo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bandenay has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Bravo over Humberto Bandenay. The model is firm on this one: Bravo at 83%. The market implies 27% for Bandenay, but our model sees only 17%. That 10-point gap favoring Bravo is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-12-1) taking on Rashad Evans (14-7-1).

Evans is rated at 1121 — 387 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Alvey's all-rounder game against Evans's striker approach. Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Evans brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Rashad Evans. The model gives Alvey a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Alvey at 53% implied while our model sees 58% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alejandro Perez (8-3-1) taking on Andre Soukhamthath (2-4). Soukhamthath is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Perez is rated at 1082 — 195 points above Soukhamthath's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Perez's all-rounder game against Soukhamthath's knockout artist approach. Perez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Soukhamthath is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alejandro Perez over Andre Soukhamthath. The model gives Perez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-7) taking on Brad Scott (3-4).

Hermansson is rated at 1117 — 233 points above Scott's 884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hermansson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Scott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Scott the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Brad Scott. We're leaning Hermansson here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Dustin Ortiz (8-5) taking on Hector Sandoval (2-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ortiz.

Ortiz is rated at 1329 — 345 points above Sandoval's 983. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ortiz rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandoval throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandoval is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Sandoval has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Ortiz over Hector Sandoval. The model gives Ortiz a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Henry Briones (1-3). Briones is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Yahya is rated at 1030 — 222 points above Briones's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Briones throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Briones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rani Yahya over Henry Briones. We're leaning Yahya here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jose Quinonez (5-3) taking on Diego Rivas (2-1).

Rivas carries a modest Elo edge (960 to 882), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinonez throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinonez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Quinonez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Quinonez over Diego Rivas. We're leaning Quinonez here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Morales (2-2) taking on Robert Sanchez (1-1). Morales will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Morales is rated at 1149 — 250 points above Sanchez's 899. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Morales over Robert Sanchez. The model gives Morales a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jordan Rinaldi (2-2) taking on Alvaro Herrera Mendoza (1-2). Mendoza is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rinaldi is rated at 1071 — 334 points above Mendoza's 738. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mendoza throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Rinaldi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Mendoza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alvaro Herrera Mendoza over Jordan Rinaldi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mendoza at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.