UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno
Saturday, August 5, 2017·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
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Main Card
FlyweightMISS
Sergio Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Pettis 45%55% Moreno
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+5.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -214(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Moreno)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Split (R3)
Grasso 66%34% Markos
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+6.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -38(favors Markos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Grasso)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Markos)
WelterweightMISS
Niko Price won by KO/TKO (R1)
Price 50%50% Jouban
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+10.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -180(favors Jouban)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Jouban)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Price)
FeatherweightMISS
Humberto Bandenay won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bandenay 18%82% Bravo
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
STRONGMarket: 27% (-8.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -191(favors Bravo)
→Striking volume advantage: -8.1(favors Bravo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bravo)
MiddleweightHIT
Sam Alvey won by Decision - Split (R3)
Alvey 57%43% Evans
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 53% (+3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -162(favors Evans)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Evans)
BantamweightHIT
Alejandro Perez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Perez 58%42% Soukhamthath
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 56% (+2.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +324(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Perez)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Jack Hermansson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hermansson 70%30% Scott
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+0.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +202(favors Hermansson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Hermansson)
FlyweightHIT
Dustin Ortiz won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ortiz 68%32% Sandoval
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+3.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -100(favors Sandoval)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Sandoval)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Sandoval)
BantamweightHIT
Rani Yahya won by Submission (R1)
Yahya 75%25% Briones
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +328(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Briones)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.1(favors Yahya)
BantamweightHIT
Jose Quinonez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Quinonez 79%21% Rivas
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 70% (+9.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -145(favors Rivas)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Quinonez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Quinonez)
FlyweightHIT
Joseph Morales won by Submission (R1)
Morales 62%38% Sanchez
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sanchez)
LightweightMISS
Jordan Rinaldi won by Submission (R1)
Rinaldi 48%52% Mendoza
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +17(favors Rinaldi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Mendoza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Rinaldi)