UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy
Saturday, April 5, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Lerone Murphy won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Murphy 72%28% Emmett
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -46(favors Emmett)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Murphy)
FeatherweightMISS
Pat Sabatini won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sabatini 47%53% Brito
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -167(favors Brito)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Sabatini)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Sabatini)
BantamweightHIT
ChangHo Lee won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lee 57%43% Romious
LEAN
→Elo gap: +169(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Romious)
MiddleweightMISS
Brad Tavares won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tavares 46%54% Meerschaert
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -57(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Meerschaert)
FlyweightHIT
Ode Osbourne won by KO/TKO (R2)
Osbourne 56%44% Gurule
LEAN
→Elo gap: -178(favors Gurule)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Osbourne)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Osbourne)
MiddleweightHIT
Torrez Finney won by Decision - Split (R3)
Finney 58%42% Valentin
LEAN
→Elo gap: +128(favors Finney)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Valentin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Valentin)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Dione Barbosa won by Submission (R1)
Barbosa 57%43% Belbita
LEAN
→Elo gap: +254(favors Barbosa)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors Belbita)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Barbosa)
WelterweightMISS
Rhys McKee won by KO/TKO (R1)
McKee 37%63% Frunza
LEAN
→Elo gap: -233(favors Frunza)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors McKee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Frunza)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Loma Lookboonmee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lookboonmee 71%29% Nunes
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +491(favors Lookboonmee)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Lookboonmee)
BantamweightHIT
Victor Henry won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Henry 58%42% Falcao
LEAN
→Elo gap: +175(favors Henry)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Henry)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Henry)
HeavyweightMISS
Martin Buday won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Buday 47%53% Satybaldiev
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +56(favors Buday)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Buday)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Buday)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Talita Alencar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alencar 54%46% Demopoulos
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -91(favors Demopoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Demopoulos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Alencar)