UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Lerone Murphy (8-0-1) taking on Josh Emmett (10-5). Murphy is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Murphy is rated at 1654 — 298 points above Emmett's 1356. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murphy rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Murphy's all-rounder game against Emmett's striker approach. Murphy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Emmett brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lerone Murphy over Josh Emmett. We're leaning Murphy here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Pat Sabatini (7-2) taking on Joanderson Brito (5-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sabatini at 1425 versus Brito at 1283. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Sabatini looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brito is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Sabatini the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sabatini throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sabatini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Sabatini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanderson Brito over Pat Sabatini. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brito at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features ChangHo Lee (2-0) taking on Cortavious Romious (0-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Lee.

Lee is rated at 1024 — 195 points above Romious's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Romious is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: ChangHo Lee over Cortavious Romious. The model gives Lee a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12). Meerschaert will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tavares carries a modest Elo edge (925 to 867), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Tavares's striker game against Meerschaert's wrestler approach. Tavares brings a versatile approach, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Brad Tavares. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Meerschaert at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Ode Osbourne (5-7) taking on Luis Gurule (0-2). Osbourne is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Osbourne at 846 versus Gurule at 761. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osbourne throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Osbourne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Gurule has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ode Osbourne over Luis Gurule. The model gives Osbourne a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Torrez Finney (1-0) taking on Robert Valentin (0-2). Valentin is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Finney is rated at 1011 — 228 points above Valentin's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Valentin throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Valentin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Finney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Torrez Finney over Robert Valentin. The model gives Finney a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Dione Barbosa (2-1) taking on Diana Belbita (2-5).

Barbosa is rated at 1025 — 285 points above Belbita's 739. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belbita throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Barbosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Barbosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dione Barbosa over Diana Belbita. The model gives Barbosa a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rhys McKee (1-4) taking on Daniel Frunza (0-1). McKee will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: McKee at 853 versus Frunza at 753. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKee throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Frunza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Frunza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Frunza over Rhys McKee. The model gives Frunza a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loma Lookboonmee (7-2) taking on Istela Nunes (0-4). Nunes is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Lookboonmee is rated at 1089 — 398 points above Nunes's 691. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lookboonmee rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lookboonmee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loma Lookboonmee over Istela Nunes. We're leaning Lookboonmee here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Victor Henry (3-2) taking on Pedro Falcao (0-1).

Henry is rated at 1135 — 266 points above Falcao's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henry throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Henry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Falcao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Victor Henry over Pedro Falcao. The model gives Henry a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Martin Buday (6-1) taking on Uran Satybaldiev (0-1).

Buday is rated at 1183 — 166 points above Satybaldiev's 1017. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buday throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Buday is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Satybaldiev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uran Satybaldiev over Martin Buday. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Satybaldiev at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Talita Alencar (2-1) taking on Vanessa Demopoulos (5-4).

Alencar is rated at 1168 — 285 points above Demopoulos's 883. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Demopoulos throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alencar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Alencar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Talita Alencar over Vanessa Demopoulos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alencar at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.