UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Alexander Gustafsson (10-7) taking on Glover Teixeira (16-6). Gustafsson is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 426 points above Gustafsson's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gustafsson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Teixeira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Gustafsson over Glover Teixeira. We're leaning Gustafsson here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Volkan Oezdemir (8-7) taking on Misha Cirkunov (6-6).

Oezdemir is rated at 1501 — 633 points above Cirkunov's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oezdemir is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cirkunov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cirkunov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Cirkunov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Misha Cirkunov over Volkan Oezdemir. The model is firm on this one: Cirkunov at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Peter Sobotta (4-5) taking on Ben Saunders (9-9). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sobotta is rated at 1083 — 270 points above Saunders's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sobotta's wrestler game against Saunders's knockout artist approach. Sobotta looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Saunders is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobotta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Sobotta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Peter Sobotta over Ben Saunders. The model gives Sobotta a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sobotta at 50% implied while our model sees 59% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1) taking on Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6).

Akhmedov is rated at 1303 — 330 points above Alhassan's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Akhmedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alhassan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Akhmedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alhassan throws significantly more leather — a 10.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Alhassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abdul Razak Alhassan over Omari Akhmedov. The model is firm on this one: Alhassan at 75%. The market implies 31% for Akhmedov, but our model sees only 25%. That 7-point gap favoring Alhassan is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Nordine Taleb (7-4) taking on Oliver Enkamp (0-1). Enkamp will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Taleb at 976 versus Enkamp at 860. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taleb throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Taleb is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Enkamp has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nordine Taleb over Oliver Enkamp. The model is firm on this one: Taleb at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Taleb at 77% implied while our model sees 83% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-7) taking on Alex Nicholson (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Nicholson.

Hermansson is rated at 1117 — 224 points above Nicholson's 893. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Alex Nicholson. The model gives Hermansson a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-9) taking on Damian Stasiak (2-3). Stasiak will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Munhoz is rated at 1211 — 338 points above Stasiak's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stasiak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Munhoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pedro Munhoz over Damian Stasiak. The model is firm on this one: Munhoz at 83%. The market implies 87% for Munhoz, but our model sees only 83%. That 4-point gap favoring Stasiak is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Trevor Smith (5-6) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-9).

Camozzi carries a modest Elo edge (986 to 934), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Smith looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Camozzi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Smith the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevor Smith over Chris Camozzi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Smith at 39% implied while our model sees 55% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joaquim Silva (6-5) taking on Reza Madadi (3-3). Madadi is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1139 versus Madadi at 1046. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Madadi's wrestler approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Madadi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Madadi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Madadi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joaquim Silva over Reza Madadi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Silva, but our model sees only 50%. That 10-point gap favoring Madadi is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Bojan Velickovic (2-2-1) taking on Nicholas Musoke (3-2).

Velickovic carries a modest Elo edge (1001 to 937), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Velickovic is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Musoke looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Musoke the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Musoke throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Musoke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Musoke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bojan Velickovic over Nicholas Musoke. The model gives Velickovic a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Darren Till (6-4-1) taking on Jessin Ayari (1-2).

Till is rated at 1296 — 481 points above Ayari's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ayari throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ayari is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ayari has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Till over Jessin Ayari. The model gives Till a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 75% for Till, but our model sees only 60%. That 14-point gap favoring Ayari is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Damir Hadzovic (4-5) taking on Marcin Held (0-3).

Held carries a modest Elo edge (939 to 882), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hadzovic throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Held is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Hadzovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Held over Damir Hadzovic. We're leaning Held here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.