UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira
Sunday, May 28, 2017·Stockholm, Sweden·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alexander Gustafsson won by KO/TKO (R5)
Gustafsson 73%27% Teixeira
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-0.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -115(favors Teixeira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Gustafsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Teixeira)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Volkan Oezdemir won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oezdemir 19%81% Cirkunov
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
STRONGMarket: 20% (-0.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -391(favors Cirkunov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Oezdemir)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.0(favors Cirkunov)
WelterweightHIT
Peter Sobotta won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sobotta 61%39% Saunders
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 50% (+10.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -171(favors Saunders)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Saunders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Sobotta)
WelterweightMISS
Omari Akhmedov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Akhmedov 31%69% Alhassan
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-0.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -71(favors Alhassan)
→Striking volume advantage: -10.7(favors Alhassan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Akhmedov)
WelterweightHIT
Nordine Taleb won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Taleb 79%21% Enkamp
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +258(favors Taleb)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Taleb)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Taleb)
MiddleweightHIT
Jack Hermansson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hermansson 57%43% Nicholson
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 60% (-2.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -84(favors Nicholson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Hermansson)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Pedro Munhoz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Munhoz 88%12% Stasiak
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 87% (+1.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +47(favors Munhoz)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Munhoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Stasiak)
MiddleweightMISS
Trevor Smith won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smith 45%55% Camozzi
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 39% (+5.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +13(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Smith)
LightweightHIT
Joaquim Silva won by Decision - Split (R3)
Silva 55%45% Madadi
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-5.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +173(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Madadi)
WelterweightHIT
Bojan Velickovic won by KO/TKO (R3)
Velickovic 59%41% Musoke
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -196(favors Musoke)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Musoke)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Musoke)
WelterweightHIT
Darren Till won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Till 65%35% Ayari
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-9.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -16(favors Ayari)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Ayari)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ayari)
LightweightMISS
Damir Hadzovic won by KO/TKO (R3)
Hadzovic 28%72% Held
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (+2.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +37(favors Hadzovic)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Hadzovic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Held)