UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Saturday, April 15, 2017·Kansas City, Missouri, USA·13 fights
Model: 11/13(85%)
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Main Card
FlyweightHIT
Demetrious Johnson won by Submission (R3)
Johnson 86%14% Reis
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 88% (-1.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +379(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Reis)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Rose Namajunas won by Submission (R2)
Namajunas 59%41% Waterson-Gomez
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +32(favors Namajunas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Waterson-Gomez)
MiddleweightHIT
Robert Whittaker won by KO/TKO (R2)
Whittaker 70%30% Souza
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -109(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Souza)
FeatherweightHIT
Renato Moicano won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moicano 51%49% Stephens
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+13.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -215(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Moicano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Moicano)
HeavyweightHIT
Alexander Volkov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Volkov 73%27% Nelson
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+13.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -183(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Volkov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Nelson)
BantamweightHIT
Tom Duquesnoy won by KO/TKO (R2)
Duquesnoy 80%20% Williams
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 89% (-8.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -95(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Williams)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors Williams)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Rashid Magomedov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Magomedov 77%23% Green
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+1.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +141(favors Magomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Green)
FlyweightMISS
Tim Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elliott 40%60% Smolka
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 64% (-23.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -259(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Elliott)
BantamweightHIT
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sterling 89%11% Mendes
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+12.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +313(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Mendes)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Devin Clark won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Clark 53%47% Collier
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-4.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -52(favors Collier)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Collier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Clark)
MiddleweightMISS
Anthony Smith won by KO/TKO (R3)
Smith 29%71% Sanchez
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 25% (+4.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -171(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Sanchez)
WelterweightHIT
Zak Cummings won by Submission (R1)
Cummings 88%12% Coy
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+6.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +355(favors Cummings)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Cummings)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Coy)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Ketlen Vieira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vieira 71%29% Evans-Smith
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
CONFIDENTMarket: 39% (+31.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -159(favors Evans-Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Evans-Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Vieira)