UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Steve Erceg (3-3).

Moreno is rated at 1410 — 230 points above Erceg's 1179. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Erceg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Steve Erceg. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Manuel Torres (4-1) taking on Drew Dober (13-11). Torres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Torres is rated at 1482 — 399 points above Dober's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Torres's knockout artist game against Dober's all-rounder approach. Torres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torres throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Torres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Dober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manuel Torres over Drew Dober. The model gives Torres a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Edgar Chairez (1-2) taking on CJ Vergara (3-4). Chairez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Chairez is rated at 1011 — 245 points above Vergara's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vergara throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Vergara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vergara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CJ Vergara over Edgar Chairez. We're leaning Vergara here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raul Rosas Jr. (4-1) taking on Vince Morales (3-7). Morales will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jr. is rated at 1251 — 399 points above Morales's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jr. rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jr. looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Morales is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jr. the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. over Vince Morales. We're leaning Jr. here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features David Martinez (1-0) taking on Saimon Oliveira (0-3). Oliveira will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Martinez is rated at 1225 — 565 points above Oliveira's 660. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Martinez over Saimon Oliveira. The model gives Martinez a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Kevin Borjas (1-2) taking on Ronaldo Rodriguez (2-0). Borjas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rodriguez carries a modest Elo edge (953 to 879), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borjas throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Borjas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronaldo Rodriguez over Kevin Borjas. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ateba Gautier (3-0) taking on Jose Daniel Medina (0-2). Gautier is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Gautier is rated at 1266 — 589 points above Medina's 678. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gautier rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medina throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Medina is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Gautier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ateba Gautier over Jose Daniel Medina. The model gives Gautier a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Melquizael Costa (6-2) taking on Christian Rodriguez (5-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Costa.

Costa is rated at 1550 — 509 points above Rodriguez's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Costa rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Costa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Costa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Costa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Rodriguez over Melquizael Costa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loopy Godinez (8-5) taking on Julia Polastri (1-2). Polastri will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Godinez is rated at 1260 — 154 points above Polastri's 1106. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godinez throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julia Polastri over Loopy Godinez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Polastri at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafa Garcia (5-4) taking on Vinc Pichel (7-4). Pichel is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Garcia is rated at 1419 — 357 points above Pichel's 1062. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pichel is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Garcia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafa Garcia over Vinc Pichel. We're leaning Garcia here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Jamall Emmers (4-4) taking on Gabriel Miranda (1-2). Emmers will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Emmers is rated at 1177 — 375 points above Miranda's 802. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmers throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Miranda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Emmers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamall Emmers over Gabriel Miranda. The model gives Emmers a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features MarQuel Mederos (2-0) taking on Austin Hubbard (4-7).

Mederos is rated at 1172 — 354 points above Hubbard's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hubbard throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hubbard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Mederos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Austin Hubbard over MarQuel Mederos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hubbard at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.