UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Saturday, March 29, 2025·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Moreno won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Moreno 63%37% Erceg
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +442(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Erceg)
LightweightHIT
Manuel Torres won by KO/TKO (R1)
Torres 61%39% Dober
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +7(favors Torres)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Torres)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Torres)
FlyweightMISS
Edgar Chairez won by Submission (R1)
Chairez 33%67% Vergara
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +65(favors Chairez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Vergara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Vergara)
BantamweightHIT
Raul Rosas Jr. won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jr. 75%25% Morales
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +361(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Jr.)
BantamweightHIT
David Martinez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Martinez 64%36% Oliveira
LEAN
→Elo gap: +181(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Oliveira)
FlyweightMISS
Kevin Borjas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Borjas 38%62% Rodriguez
LEAN
→Elo gap: -273(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Borjas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Rodriguez)
MiddleweightHIT
Ateba Gautier won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gautier 60%40% Medina
LEAN
→Elo gap: +96(favors Gautier)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Medina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Medina)
FeatherweightMISS
Melquizael Costa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Costa 46%54% Rodriguez
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +53(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Costa)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Loopy Godinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Godinez 48%52% Polastri
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +80(favors Godinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Godinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Godinez)
LightweightHIT
Rafa Garcia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garcia 72%28% Pichel
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Garcia)
FeatherweightHIT
Jamall Emmers won by KO/TKO (R1)
Emmers 56%44% Miranda
LEAN
→Elo gap: +114(favors Emmers)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Emmers)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Miranda)
LightweightMISS
MarQuel Mederos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Mederos 48%52% Hubbard
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +167(favors Mederos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Hubbard)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Hubbard)