UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
Saturday, March 11, 2017·Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil
Model Record: 5/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight
Belfort 23%77% Gastelum
STRONGMarket: 24% (-0.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -85(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Gastelum)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Mauricio Rua won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rua 49%51% Villante
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-8.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +155(favors Rua)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Villante)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Rua)
LightweightMISS
Edson Barboza won by KO/TKO (R2)
Barboza 45%55% Dariush
LEANMarket: 60% (-15.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -64(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Dariush)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Dariush)
FlyweightMISS
Ray Borg won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Borg 45%55% Formiga
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Formiga)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Borg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Borg)
Women's Bantamweight
Correia 63%37% Reneau
LEANMarket: 49% (+14.7% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +32(favors Correia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Correia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Reneau)
WelterweightMISS
Alex Oliveira won by Submission (R2)
Oliveira 38%62% Means
LEANMarket: 36% (+1.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +25(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Oliveira)
LightweightHIT
Kevin Lee won by Submission (R2)
Lee 62%38% Trinaldo
LEANMarket: 61% (+1.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -65(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Trinaldo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Lee)
WelterweightHIT
Sergio Moraes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moraes 73%27% Ramos
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+5.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +357(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Moraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Moraes)
BantamweightMISS
Joe Soto won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Soto 40%60% Yahya
LEANMarket: 35% (+4.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -148(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Soto)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Yahya)
LightweightHIT
Michel Prazeres won by Submission (R1)
Prazeres 62%38% Burkman
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +388(favors Prazeres)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Burkman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Prazeres)
FeatherweightHIT
Jeremy Kennedy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kennedy 71%29% Jason
CONFIDENTMarket: 52% (+19.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -13(favors Jason)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Kennedy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.2(favors Kennedy)
MiddleweightHIT
Paulo Costa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Costa 75%25% McLellan
STRONGMarket: 73% (+2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +95(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors McLellan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors McLellan)