UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Tyron Woodley (9-5-1) taking on Stephen Thompson (12-8-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Thompson.

There's a real Elo separation here: Woodley at 1461 versus Thompson at 1329. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Woodley is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Thompson brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Woodley the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Woodley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Woodley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyron Woodley over Stephen Thompson. The model gives Woodley a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Woodley at 42% implied while our model sees 60% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features David Teymur (5-0) taking on Lando Vannata (4-6-2).

Teymur is rated at 1295 — 397 points above Vannata's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Teymur rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Teymur's striker game against Vannata's all-rounder approach. Teymur brings a versatile approach, while Vannata is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vannata throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Teymur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Teymur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lando Vannata over David Teymur. We're leaning Vannata here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Teymur at 23% implied while our model sees 33% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Daniel Kelly (6-3) taking on Rashad Evans (14-7-1). Evans will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Evans carries a modest Elo edge (1121 to 1052), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Kelly's all-rounder game against Evans's striker approach. Kelly is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Evans brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashad Evans over Daniel Kelly. We're leaning Evans here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Kelly at 26% implied while our model sees 35% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1) taking on Amanda Cooper (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Calvillo at 911 versus Cooper at 803. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Calvillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cooper looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cooper the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cooper throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Cooper over Cynthia Calvillo. The model gives Cooper a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 53% for Calvillo, but our model sees only 43%. That 10-point gap favoring Cooper is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alistair Overeem (12-7) taking on Mark Hunt (8-7-1). Overeem is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Overeem is rated at 1412 — 243 points above Hunt's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Overeem is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hunt brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Overeem the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Overeem throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Overeem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Overeem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alistair Overeem over Mark Hunt. The model is firm on this one: Overeem at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Overeem at 56% implied while our model sees 78% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Luis Henrique (2-3). Tybura will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tybura is rated at 1242 — 411 points above Henrique's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Henrique is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Luis Henrique. The model gives Tybura a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Mirsad Bektic (6-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Elkins at 1113 versus Bektic at 1010. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Bektic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mirsad Bektic over Darren Elkins. We're leaning Bektic here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Elkins at 15% implied while our model sees 31% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Luke Sanders (3-4). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Alcantara is rated at 1046 — 155 points above Sanders's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanders throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Iuri Alcantara over Luke Sanders. The model gives Alcantara a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Godbeer (2-1) taking on Daniel Spitz (1-2). Spitz is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Godbeer carries a modest Elo edge (904 to 858), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godbeer throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Spitz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Spitz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Godbeer over Daniel Spitz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Godbeer at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Godbeer, but our model sees only 54%. That 3-point gap favoring Spitz is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tyson Pedro (6-4) taking on Paul Craig (9-9-1). Pedro will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Craig carries a modest Elo edge (1045 to 1015), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Pedro's knockout artist game against Craig's wrestler approach. Pedro is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pedro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Pedro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyson Pedro over Paul Craig. We're leaning Pedro here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pedro at 55% implied while our model sees 74% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Albert Morales (1-3-1) taking on Andre Soukhamthath (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Soukhamthath at 887 versus Morales at 804. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Morales brings a versatile approach, while Soukhamthath is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Soukhamthath the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Soukhamthath has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Soukhamthath over Albert Morales. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Soukhamthath at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Morales, but our model sees only 47%. That 8-point gap favoring Soukhamthath is worth watching.