UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Saturday, March 4, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 5/11(45%)
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Main Card
WelterweightMISS
Tyron Woodley won by Decision - Majority (R5)
Woodley 48%52% Thompson
Over/UnderOver 71%
Under 29%Over 71%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+5.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +78(favors Woodley)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Woodley)
LightweightMISS
David Teymur won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Teymur 34%66% Vannata
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 23% (+10.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +10(favors Teymur)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Vannata)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Teymur)
MiddleweightMISS
Daniel Kelly won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kelly 47%53% Evans
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
TOSS-UPMarket: 26% (+21.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -242(favors Evans)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Kelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Kelly)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Cynthia Calvillo won by Submission (R1)
Calvillo 45%55% Cooper
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-8.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Calvillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Cooper)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Cooper)
HeavyweightHIT
Alistair Overeem won by KO/TKO (R3)
Overeem 75%25% Hunt
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
STRONGMarket: 56% (+19.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Overeem)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Overeem)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Overeem)
Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Marcin Tybura won by KO/TKO (R3)
Tybura 57%43% Henrique
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEANMarket: 60% (-2.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -131(favors Henrique)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Tybura)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Henrique)
FeatherweightMISS
Darren Elkins won by KO/TKO (R3)
Elkins 25%75% Bektic
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 15% (+10.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -43(favors Bektic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Elkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Elkins)
BantamweightHIT
Iuri Alcantara won by Submission (R2)
Alcantara 63%37% Sanders
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -28(favors Sanders)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Sanders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Alcantara)
HeavyweightHIT
Mark Godbeer won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Godbeer 54%46% Spitz
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -108(favors Spitz)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Godbeer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Spitz)
Early Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Tyson Pedro won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pedro 75%25% Craig
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+19.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -183(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.1(favors Pedro)
BantamweightMISS
Albert Morales won by Decision - Split (R3)
Morales 46%54% Soukhamthath
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-9.1% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Soukhamthath)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Morales)