UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Featherweight championship matchup features Germaine de Randamie (7-2) taking on Holly Holm (8-6).

Randamie is rated at 1341 — 215 points above Holm's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Randamie's all-rounder game against Holm's striker approach. Randamie is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Holm brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Randamie throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Holm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Randamie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Germaine de Randamie over Holly Holm. The model gives Randamie a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Randamie at 54% implied while our model sees 64% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Derek Brunson (14-6).

Brunson is rated at 1402 — 248 points above Silva's 1154. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brunson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brunson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brunson throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derek Brunson over Anderson Silva. The model gives Brunson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-6) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-11).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Souza at 1187, Boetsch at 1174. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Souza's wrestler game against Boetsch's striker approach. Souza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Boetsch brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacare Souza over Tim Boetsch. The model is firm on this one: Souza at 77%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Jared Cannonier (11-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Teixeira.

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 170 points above Cannonier's 1426. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Teixeira's all-rounder game against Cannonier's striker approach. Teixeira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cannonier brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Glover Teixeira over Jared Cannonier. The model gives Teixeira a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Teixeira, but our model sees only 59%. That 8-point gap favoring Cannonier is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Jim Miller (27-17).

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 468 points above Miller's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Poirier's knockout artist game against Miller's all-rounder approach. Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Miller is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Jim Miller. The model is firm on this one: Poirier at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Poirier at 78% implied while our model sees 89% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Randy Brown (14-6). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 366 points above Brown's 1381. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Belal Muhammad. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Wilson Reis (7-5) taking on Yuta Sasaki (4-4). Sasaki is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Reis carries a modest Elo edge (1083 to 1009), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reis throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Reis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Reis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wilson Reis over Yuta Sasaki. The model is firm on this one: Reis at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Nik Lentz (14-8-1). Makhachev is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 1051 points above Lentz's 1159. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Nik Lentz. The model is firm on this one: Makhachev at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Makhachev at 74% implied while our model sees 79% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricky Glenn (4-5-1) taking on Phillipe Nover (1-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Glenn.

There's a real Elo separation here: Glenn at 886 versus Nover at 767. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Glenn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nover looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nover the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Glenn throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nover is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Nover has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Glenn over Phillipe Nover. The model gives Glenn a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Ryan LaFlare (7-2) taking on Roan Carneiro (4-4).

LaFlare carries a modest Elo edge (1174 to 1115), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: LaFlare is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Carneiro looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Carneiro the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. LaFlare throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. LaFlare is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Carneiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan LaFlare over Roan Carneiro. We're leaning LaFlare here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.