UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Friday, December 30, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·10 fights
Model: 6/9(67%)
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Main Card
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nunes 79%21% Rousey
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONG
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Rousey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Rousey)
BantamweightHIT
Cody Garbrandt won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Garbrandt 55%45% Cruz
Over/UnderOver 69%
Under 31%Over 69%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -136(favors Cruz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Garbrandt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Cruz)
BantamweightHIT
TJ Dillashaw won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dillashaw 53%47% Lineker
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +92(favors Dillashaw)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Dillashaw)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Dillashaw)
WelterweightHIT
Dong Hyun Kim won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kim 63%37% Saffiedine
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +264(favors Kim)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Saffiedine)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Kim)
FlyweightMISS
Ray Borg won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Borg 48%52% Smolka
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -87(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Borg)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Neil Magny won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magny 74%26% Hendricks
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -75(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Hendricks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Hendricks)
MiddleweightMISS
Antonio Carlos Junior won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Junior 44%56% Vettori
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -25(favors Vettori)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Vettori)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Junior)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Garcia won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garcia 62%38% Pyle
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -27(favors Pyle)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Pyle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Garcia)
WelterweightMISS
Niko Price won by Submission (R1)
Price 49%51% Thatch
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -27(favors Thatch)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Thatch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Thatch)
Early Prelims
Welterweight
Oliveira 64%36% Means
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Oliveira)