UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Sean Brady (8-1) taking on Leon Edwards (14-4). Edwards is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Brady carries a modest Elo edge (1658 to 1596), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Brady rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Brady looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brady the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brady throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Brady has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leon Edwards over Sean Brady. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Ulberg (8-1) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1).

Ulberg is rated at 1803 — 225 points above Blachowicz's 1578. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulberg rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ulberg's knockout artist game against Blachowicz's all-rounder approach. Ulberg is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulberg throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ulberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Ulberg over Jan Blachowicz. The model gives Ulberg a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Gunnar Nelson (10-5). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Nelson carries a modest Elo edge (1310 to 1257), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nelson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nelson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gunnar Nelson over Kevin Holland. The model gives Nelson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alexia Thainara (1-0) taking on Molly McCann (7-6). Thainara will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Thainara is rated at 1198 — 364 points above McCann's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Thainara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexia Thainara over Molly McCann. The model gives Thainara a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Duncan (5-1) taking on Jordan Vucenic (0-1).

Duncan is rated at 1375 — 515 points above Vucenic's 860. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duncan throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Duncan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Vucenic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Duncan over Jordan Vucenic. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Duncan at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (9-3) taking on Morgan Charriere (3-2).

Wood is rated at 1389 — 221 points above Charriere's 1168. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Charriere is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Wood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Morgan Charriere over Nathaniel Wood. The model gives Charriere a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Padilla (3-0) taking on Jai Herbert (3-4-1). Herbert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Padilla is rated at 1301 — 287 points above Herbert's 1014. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Padilla rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Padilla throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Padilla is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Herbert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Padilla over Jai Herbert. We're leaning Padilla here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Lone'er Kavanagh (2-0) taking on Felipe dos Santos (1-2). Santos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kavanagh at 1024 versus Santos at 908. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kavanagh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lone'er Kavanagh over Felipe dos Santos. The model gives Kavanagh a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Mick Parkin (4-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Tybura at 1242, Parkin at 1239. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Parkin has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parkin throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Parkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mick Parkin over Marcin Tybura. The model gives Parkin a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Christian Leroy Duncan (5-2) taking on Andrey Pulyaev (1-1).

Duncan is rated at 1424 — 415 points above Pulyaev's 1009. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duncan throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Duncan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pulyaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan over Andrey Pulyaev. The model gives Duncan a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Shauna Bannon (2-1) taking on Puja Tomar (1-0). Bannon will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bannon at 1003 versus Tomar at 918. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tomar throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tomar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tomar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shauna Bannon over Puja Tomar. The model gives Bannon a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Caolan Loughran (1-2) taking on Nathan Fletcher (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Loughran at 1041 versus Fletcher at 909. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loughran throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Fletcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.6 more per 15 minutes. Loughran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nathan Fletcher over Caolan Loughran. The model gives Fletcher a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Kaue Fernandes (2-1) taking on Guram Kutateladze (2-2).

Fernandes is rated at 1212 — 260 points above Kutateladze's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kutateladze throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kutateladze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fernandes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kaue Fernandes over Guram Kutateladze. We're leaning Fernandes here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.