UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Saturday, December 10, 2016·Toronto, Ontario, Canada·12 fights
Model: 11/12(92%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Max Holloway won by KO/TKO (R3)
Holloway 62%38% Pettis
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 61% (+1.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +58(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Holloway)
WelterweightHIT
Donald Cerrone won by KO/TKO (R3)
Cerrone 80%20% Brown
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 70% (+9.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +425(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Cerrone)
FeatherweightHIT
Cub Swanson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Swanson 50%50% Choi
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Choi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Swanson)
MiddleweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by KO/TKO (R3)
Gastelum 70%30% Kennedy
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (+29.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +205(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Kennedy)
WelterweightHIT
Emil Meek won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Meek 52%48% Mein
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (+1.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -340(favors Mein)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Mein)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Mein)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Misha Cirkunov won by Submission (R1)
Cirkunov 58%42% Krylov
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEANMarket: 50% (+8.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -152(favors Krylov)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Cirkunov)
LightweightHIT
Olivier Aubin-Mercier won by Submission (R2)
Aubin-Mercier 68%32% Dober
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+6.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +59(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Aubin-Mercier)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Viviane Pereira won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pereira 49%51% Letourneau
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+9.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -41(favors Letourneau)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Letourneau)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Letourneau)
BantamweightHIT
Matthew Lopez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lopez 51%49% Gagnon
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+5.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -365(favors Gagnon)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Gagnon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Gagnon)
Early Prelims
LightweightHIT
Lando Vannata won by KO/TKO (R1)
Vannata 50%50% Makdessi
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-9.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -182(favors Makdessi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Makdessi)
LightweightHIT
Rustam Khabilov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Khabilov 77%23% Saggo
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 66% (+10.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +202(favors Khabilov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Saggo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Khabilov)
FlyweightHIT
Dustin Ortiz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ortiz 65%35% Makovsky
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
CONFIDENTMarket: 40% (+25.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Makovsky)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Ortiz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Makovsky)