The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Tim Elliott (9-11). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Elliott.

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 362 points above Elliott's 1241. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Tim Elliott. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 92%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-5) taking on Henry Cejudo (10-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cejudo at 1416 versus Benavidez at 1291. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cejudo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cejudo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Henry Cejudo over Joseph Benavidez. The model gives Cejudo a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Benavidez, but our model sees only 43%. That 21-point gap favoring Cejudo is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-9) taking on Jake Ellenberger (10-10). Masvidal is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 732 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Masvidal throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Masvidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Jake Ellenberger. We're leaning Masvidal here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-8) taking on Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1).

Cannonier is rated at 1426 — 280 points above Cutelaba's 1147. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cannonier's striker game against Cutelaba's wrestler approach. Cannonier brings a versatile approach, while Cutelaba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Jared Cannonier. We're leaning Cutelaba here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Cannonier, but our model sees only 28%. That 6-point gap favoring Cutelaba is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sara McMann (6-6) taking on Alexis Davis (7-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: McMann at 1158 versus Davis at 1030. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. McMann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sara McMann over Alexis Davis. We're leaning McMann here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has McMann at 63% implied while our model sees 69% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Ryan Benoit (3-5). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Moreno is rated at 1410 — 599 points above Benoit's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Benoit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Benoit over Brandon Moreno. The model gives Benoit a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 52% for Moreno, but our model sees only 43%. That 9-point gap favoring Benoit is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Ryan Hall (4-1) taking on Gray Maynard (11-6-1).

Hall is rated at 1214 — 240 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Maynard looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maynard the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maynard throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Hall over Gray Maynard. The model gives Hall a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hall at 47% implied while our model sees 62% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-7) taking on Matt Schnell (7-7).

Font is rated at 1361 — 462 points above Schnell's 899. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Font is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Schnell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Schnell the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Schnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Font over Matt Schnell. The model gives Font a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 68% for Font, but our model sees only 62%. That 6-point gap favoring Schnell is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Dong Hyun Ma (3-4) taking on Brendan O'Reilly (1-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Ma.

Ma carries a modest Elo edge (838 to 802), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ma throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Reilly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Ma has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dong Hyun Ma over Brendan O'Reilly. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ma at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jamie Moyle (1-1) taking on Kailin Curran (1-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Curran.

There's a real Elo separation here: Moyle at 864 versus Curran at 736. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curran throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Curran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Moyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kailin Curran over Jamie Moyle. The model gives Curran a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moyle at 42% implied while our model sees 45% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Elvis Mutapcic (0-1-1). Smith is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Smith is rated at 1070 — 262 points above Mutapcic's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mutapcic throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Smith over Elvis Mutapcic. The model gives Smith a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Smith at 52% implied while our model sees 60% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Devin Clark (8-8) taking on Josh Stansbury (1-1).

Clark is rated at 944 — 152 points above Stansbury's 792. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stansbury throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Stansbury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Stansbury over Devin Clark. We're leaning Stansbury here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 48% for Clark, but our model sees only 30%. That 18-point gap favoring Stansbury is worth watching.