The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale
Saturday, December 3, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
FlyweightHIT
Demetrious Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Johnson 93%7% Elliott
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
STRONGMarket: 89% (+3.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +784(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Elliott)
FlyweightHIT
Joseph Benavidez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Benavidez 60%40% Cejudo
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
LEANMarket: 64% (-4.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +135(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Cejudo)
WelterweightHIT
Jorge Masvidal won by KO/TKO (R1)
Masvidal 67%33% Ellenberger
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+1.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -38(favors Ellenberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Masvidal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Masvidal)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Jared Cannonier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cannonier 25%75% Cutelaba
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-8.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +76(favors Cannonier)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Cannonier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cutelaba)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Sara McMann won by Submission (R2)
McMann 64%36% Davis
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 63% (+0.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -218(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors McMann)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Moreno won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moreno 53%47% Benoit
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (+0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +159(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.8(favors Moreno)
Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Ryan Hall won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hall 61%39% Maynard
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 47% (+13.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -42(favors Maynard)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Maynard)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Maynard)
BantamweightHIT
Rob Font won by KO/TKO (R1)
Font 58%42% Schnell
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 68% (-10.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +225(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Font)
LightweightHIT
Dong Hyun Ma won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ma 57%43% O'Reilly
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 52% (+5.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -191(favors O'Reilly)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Ma)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors O'Reilly)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Jamie Moyle won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moyle 48%52% Curran
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+6.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +192(favors Moyle)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Curran)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Curran)
MiddleweightHIT
Anthony Smith won by KO/TKO (R2)
Smith 54%46% Mutapcic
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (+2.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -3(favors Mutapcic)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Mutapcic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Smith)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Devin Clark won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Clark 38%62% Stansbury
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEANMarket: 48% (-10.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -363(favors Stansbury)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Stansbury)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Clark)