UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
Saturday, November 26, 2016·Melbourne, Victoria, Australia·13 fights
Model: 7/13(54%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightMISS
Robert Whittaker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Whittaker 46%54% Brunson
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+2.3% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Brunson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Brunson)
LightweightMISS
Andrew Holbrook won by Decision - Split (R3)
Holbrook 25%75% Matthews
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 20% (+5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -298(favors Matthews)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Matthews)
WelterweightHIT
Omari Akhmedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Akhmedov 61%39% Noke
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 58% (+2.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +58(favors Akhmedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Noke)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Akhmedov)
LightweightMISS
Alexander Volkanovski won by KO/TKO (R2)
Volkanovski 42%58% Kasuya
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +78(favors Volkanovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Kasuya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Kasuya)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Tyson Pedro won by Submission (R1)
Pedro 57%43% Jr.
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Pedro)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jr.)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Danielle Taylor won by Decision - Split (R3)
Taylor 52%48% Ham
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+5.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +72(favors Taylor)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Ham)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Taylor)
Prelims
MiddleweightMISS
Daniel Kelly won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kelly 36%64% Camozzi
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEANMarket: 33% (+3.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Kelly)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Kelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Kelly)
LightweightHIT
Damien Brown won by Decision - Split (R3)
Brown 52%48% Tuck
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+6.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -7(favors Tuck)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Tuck)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Brown)
WelterweightMISS
Jonathan Meunier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Meunier 44%56% Walsh
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 48% (-4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +14(favors Meunier)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Walsh)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Walsh)
FlyweightHIT
Ben Nguyen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nguyen 63%37% Herrera
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 52% (+10.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +77(favors Nguyen)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Nguyen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Herrera)
FeatherweightHIT
Jason Knight won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Knight 57%43% Hooker
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -86(favors Hooker)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Knight)
FeatherweightHIT
Marlon Vera won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vera 55%45% Ning
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -321(favors Ning)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Ning)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Ning)
FlyweightMISS
Jenel Lausa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lausa 47%53% Zhikui
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +85(favors Lausa)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Zhikui)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Zhikui)