UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Saturday, November 19, 2016·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil·12 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Bader won by KO/TKO (R3)
Bader 73%27% Nogueira
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-0.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +192(favors Bader)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Nogueira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Bader)
BantamweightHIT
Thomas Almeida won by KO/TKO (R2)
Almeida 78%22% Morales
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+4.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +236(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Morales)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Claudia Gadelha won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gadelha 75%25% Casey
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -87(favors Casey)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Gadelha)
MiddleweightHIT
Krzysztof Jotko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jotko 55%45% Leites
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+12.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Leites)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Jotko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Leites)
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Usman 72%28% Alves
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+6.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.5(favors Usman)
WelterweightHIT
Sergio Moraes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moraes 65%35% Ottow
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-1.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +369(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Ottow)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Moraes)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Cezar Ferreira won by Submission (R2)
Ferreira 57%43% Hermansson
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEANMarket: 52% (+5.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +18(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Ferreira)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Gadzhimurad Antigulov won by Submission (R1)
Antigulov 31%69% Lima
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENTMarket: 39% (-7.9% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -210(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.3(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lima)
BantamweightMISS
Johnny Eduardo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Eduardo 47%53% Gamburyan
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +71(favors Eduardo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Eduardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Gamburyan)
HeavyweightHIT
Luis Henrique won by Submission (R3)
Henrique 84%16% Colombo
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
STRONGMarket: 70% (+13.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +72(favors Henrique)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Colombo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Henrique)
BantamweightMISS
Pedro Munhoz won by Submission (R2)
Munhoz 27%73% Scoggins
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 38% (-11.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Scoggins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Munhoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Scoggins)
Light Heavyweight
Barroso 50%50% Stewart
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-5.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Stewart)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Barroso)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Barroso)