UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Saturday, March 15, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·13 fights
Model: 7/13(54%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightMISS
Roman Dolidze won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Dolidze 38%62% Vettori
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +0(favors Dolidze)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Vettori)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Vettori)
WelterweightMISS
Chidi Njokuani won by KO/TKO (R2)
Njokuani 50%50% Santos
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -315(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Njokuani)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Santos)
LightweightHIT
Alexander Hernandez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hernandez 66%34% Holobaugh
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +208(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Holobaugh)
BantamweightHIT
Da'Mon Blackshear won by Submission (R2)
Blackshear 53%47% Gibson
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +236(favors Blackshear)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Blackshear)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Blackshear)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Brendson Ribeiro won by Submission (R2)
Ribeiro 26%74% Nurgozhay
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 22% (+4.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -117(favors Nurgozhay)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Ribeiro)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Ribeiro)
FeatherweightHIT
Kevin Vallejos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Vallejos 58%42% Choi
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +70(favors Vallejos)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Choi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Choi)
Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Waldo Cortes Acosta won by KO/TKO (R2)
Acosta 65%35% Spann
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEANMarket: 66% (-1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Acosta)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Spann)
BantamweightHIT
SuYoung You won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
You 78%22% Cunningham
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +214(favors You)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.0(favors Cunningham)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors You)
BantamweightMISS
Carlos Vera won by Submission (R1)
Vera 18%82% Musasa
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
STRONGMarket: 15% (+3.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -60(favors Musasa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Musasa)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Sam Hughes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hughes 36%64% Luciano
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 39% (-2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -112(favors Luciano)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Luciano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Hughes)
FlyweightHIT
Andre Lima won by Submission (R3)
Lima 89%11% Barez
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+9.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +238(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Barez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Lima)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Priscila Cachoeira won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cachoeira 24%76% Nunes
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
STRONGMarket: 40% (-16.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -97(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Cachoeira)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Carli Judice won by KO/TKO (R1)
Judice 80%20% Duben
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+8.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -166(favors Duben)
→Striking volume advantage: +11.3(favors Judice)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Judice)