UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
Saturday, September 3, 2016·Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Josh Barnett won by Submission (R3)
Barnett 65%35% Arlovski
LEANMarket: 59% (+5.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -88(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Barnett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Arlovski)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alexander Gustafsson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gustafsson 83%17% Blachowicz
STRONGMarket: 84% (-1.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +399(favors Gustafsson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Gustafsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Gustafsson)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Bader won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bader 70%30% Latifi
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+4.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +190(favors Bader)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Latifi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Bader)
LightweightHIT
Nick Hein won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hein 71%29% Bang
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-2.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +154(favors Hein)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Hein)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Hein)
WelterweightHIT
Jessin Ayari won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ayari 55%45% Wallhead
LEANMarket: 44% (+11.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Wallhead)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Wallhead)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Wallhead)
WelterweightMISS
Peter Sobotta won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sobotta 49%51% Dalby
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+11.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -57(favors Dalby)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Dalby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Dalby)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Ashlee Evans-Smith won by KO/TKO (R3)
Evans-Smith 42%58% Hardy
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Hardy)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Evans-Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Evans-Smith)
BantamweightHIT
Taylor Lapilus won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lapilus 67%33% Issa
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+8.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -1(favors Issa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Lapilus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Issa)
Heavyweight
Danho 58%42% Colombo
LEANMarket: 54% (+3.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -65(favors Colombo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Danho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Colombo)
MiddleweightMISS
Jack Hermansson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hermansson 46%54% Askham
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (-3.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -56(favors Askham)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Askham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Askham)
LightweightHIT
Rustam Khabilov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Khabilov 89%11% Silva
STRONGMarket: 79% (+10.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +282(favors Khabilov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Khabilov)