UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Miesha Tate (7-6). Nunes is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 559 points above Tate's 1077. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nunes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Tate looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Tate the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Tate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miesha Tate over Amanda Nunes. We're leaning Tate here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 30% implied while our model sees 35% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brock Lesnar (4-3) taking on Mark Hunt (8-7-1). Lesnar is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lesnar at 1191, Hunt at 1169. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Lesnar's wrestler game against Hunt's striker approach. Lesnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hunt brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lesnar throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lesnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Lesnar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brock Lesnar over Mark Hunt. The model is firm on this one: Lesnar at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Lesnar at 41% implied while our model sees 75% — a 34-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-2) taking on Anderson Silva (17-6). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Cormier is rated at 1835 — 682 points above Silva's 1154. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cormier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cormier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cormier throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cormier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Cormier over Anderson Silva. The model is firm on this one: Cormier at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Cormier at 80% implied while our model sees 84% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight championship matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-10-1).

Aldo is rated at 1420 — 235 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Aldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Edgar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Edgar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Jose Aldo. The model gives Edgar a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Aldo, but our model sees only 43%. That 6-point gap favoring Edgar is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-2) taking on Travis Browne (9-6-1). Browne is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 458 points above Browne's 1131. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Velasquez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Browne is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Velasquez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Travis Browne. We're leaning Velasquez here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julianna Pena (8-3) taking on Cat Zingano (3-3).

Pena is rated at 1323 — 315 points above Zingano's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Zingano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Zingano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pena throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Pena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julianna Pena over Cat Zingano. The model gives Pena a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pena at 42% implied while our model sees 62% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Johny Hendricks (13-7).

Gastelum is rated at 1340 — 271 points above Hendricks's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hendricks looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hendricks the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Johny Hendricks. The model gives Gastelum a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Gastelum at 51% implied while our model sees 60% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-4) taking on Raphael Assuncao (12-6).

Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 482 points above Assuncao's 1099. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Raphael Assuncao. The model gives Dillashaw a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Sage Northcutt (5-2) taking on Enrique Marin (0-1).

Northcutt is rated at 1249 — 374 points above Marin's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Northcutt throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Northcutt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Marin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sage Northcutt over Enrique Marin. The model is firm on this one: Northcutt at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Northcutt at 76% implied while our model sees 86% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-12).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sanchez at 1139 versus Lauzon at 1036. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Diego Sanchez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lauzon at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Lauzon at 48% implied while our model sees 52% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Gegard Mousasi (8-3) taking on Thiago Santos (14-9).

Mousasi is rated at 1761 — 469 points above Santos's 1292. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Mousasi is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Santos brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Mousasi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mousasi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Thiago Santos. The model is firm on this one: Mousasi at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Mousasi at 69% implied while our model sees 79% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Takanori Gomi (4-8).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 482 points above Gomi's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miller's wrestler game against Gomi's striker approach. Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gomi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomi throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Takanori Gomi. The model is firm on this one: Miller at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Miller at 71% implied while our model sees 80% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.