UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Eddie Alvarez (4-2) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14).

There's a real Elo separation here: Alvarez at 1398 versus Anjos at 1282. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Alvarez's striker game against Anjos's submission artist approach. Alvarez brings a versatile approach, while Anjos is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Eddie Alvarez. The model is firm on this one: Anjos at 75%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Roy Nelson (9-9). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 237 points above Nelson's 1129. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Roy Nelson. We're leaning Lewis here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lewis at 49% implied while our model sees 68% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alan Jouban (7-5) taking on Belal Muhammad (15-4).

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 579 points above Jouban's 1168. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jouban's striker game against Muhammad's all-rounder approach. Jouban brings a versatile approach, while Muhammad is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jouban throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jouban is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Muhammad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Jouban over Belal Muhammad. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jouban at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 54% for Jouban, but our model sees only 50%. That 3-point gap favoring Muhammad is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Duffy (4-3) taking on Mitch Clarke (2-4).

Duffy is rated at 958 — 156 points above Clarke's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Duffy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Clarke looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Clarke the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duffy throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Clarke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Duffy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Duffy over Mitch Clarke. The model gives Duffy a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Alberto Mina (3-0) taking on Mike Pyle (10-8). Mina will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mina is rated at 1186 — 355 points above Pyle's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mina rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mina throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Pyle over Alberto Mina. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pyle at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features John Makdessi (11-8) taking on Mehdi Baghdad (0-1).

Makdessi carries a modest Elo edge (989 to 919), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Baghdad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Makdessi over Mehdi Baghdad. The model is firm on this one: Makdessi at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Makdessi at 55% implied while our model sees 77% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Anthony Birchak (2-3) taking on Dileno Lopes (0-1).

Lopes carries a modest Elo edge (857 to 808), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Birchak throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Birchak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Birchak over Dileno Lopes. We're leaning Birchak here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-9) taking on Russell Doane (3-4). Doane will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Munhoz is rated at 1211 — 259 points above Doane's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Munhoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Doane looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Doane the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Doane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Doane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pedro Munhoz over Russell Doane. We're leaning Munhoz here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Felipe Arantes (5-5-1) taking on Jerrod Sanders (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Arantes at 925, Sanders at 908. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arantes throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Arantes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Felipe Arantes over Jerrod Sanders. We're leaning Arantes here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Arantes at 59% implied while our model sees 70% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Lukasz Sajewski (0-2).

Burns is rated at 1379 — 588 points above Sajewski's 792. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Sajewski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Lukasz Sajewski. We're leaning Burns here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marco Beltran (3-2) taking on Reginaldo Vieira (1-1). Beltran will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Vieira at 918 versus Beltran at 817. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vieira throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Beltran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marco Beltran over Reginaldo Vieira. The model gives Beltran a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Beltran at 45% implied while our model sees 61% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Alvaro Herrera Mendoza (1-2).

Luque is rated at 1250 — 512 points above Mendoza's 738. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mendoza throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendoza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mendoza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alvaro Herrera Mendoza over Vicente Luque. The model gives Mendoza a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.