UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Thursday, July 7, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightMISS
Eddie Alvarez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alvarez 25%75% Anjos
STRONG
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -657(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Anjos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Anjos)
HeavyweightHIT
Derrick Lewis won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lewis 68%32% Nelson
CONFIDENTMarket: 49% (+19.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +36(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Nelson)
WelterweightHIT
Alan Jouban won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jouban 50%50% Muhammad
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-3.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +199(favors Jouban)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.1(favors Jouban)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Jouban)
LightweightHIT
Joe Duffy won by Submission (R1)
Duffy 64%36% Clarke
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +106(favors Duffy)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Duffy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Clarke)
WelterweightMISS
Alberto Mina won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mina 46%54% Pyle
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (-1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -5(favors Pyle)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Mina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Pyle)
LightweightHIT
John Makdessi won by Decision - Split (R3)
Makdessi 77%23% Baghdad
STRONGMarket: 55% (+21.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +165(favors Makdessi)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.5(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Baghdad)
BantamweightHIT
Anthony Birchak won by Decision - Split (R3)
Birchak 70%30% Lopes
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+2.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +54(favors Birchak)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Birchak)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Lopes)
BantamweightHIT
Pedro Munhoz won by Submission (R1)
Munhoz 65%35% Doane
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +85(favors Munhoz)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Munhoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Doane)
BantamweightHIT
Felipe Arantes won by Submission (R2)
Arantes 70%30% Sanders
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+10.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +110(favors Arantes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Arantes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Sanders)
LightweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by Submission (R1)
Burns 69%31% Sajewski
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-1.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +253(favors Burns)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Burns)
BantamweightHIT
Marco Beltran won by Submission (R2)
Beltran 61%39% Vieira
LEANMarket: 45% (+15.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +95(favors Beltran)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Vieira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Beltran)
WelterweightMISS
Vicente Luque won by Submission (R2)
Luque 42%58% Mendoza
LEAN
→Elo gap: -110(favors Mendoza)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Mendoza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mendoza)