UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Thursday, July 7, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 10/12(83%)
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Main Card
LightweightMISS
Eddie Alvarez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alvarez 33%67% Anjos
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -517(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Anjos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Anjos)
HeavyweightHIT
Derrick Lewis won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lewis 72%28% Nelson
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 49% (+22.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Nelson)
WelterweightHIT
Alan Jouban won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jouban 57%43% Muhammad
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 54% (+3.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +275(favors Jouban)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.1(favors Jouban)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Jouban)
LightweightHIT
Joe Duffy won by Submission (R1)
Duffy 55%45% Clarke
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +42(favors Duffy)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Duffy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Clarke)
WelterweightHIT
Alberto Mina won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mina 50%50% Pyle
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+2.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -14(favors Pyle)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Mina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Pyle)
LightweightHIT
John Makdessi won by Decision - Split (R3)
Makdessi 81%19% Baghdad
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 55% (+25.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +192(favors Makdessi)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.5(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Baghdad)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Anthony Birchak won by Decision - Split (R3)
Birchak 68%32% Lopes
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+0.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +129(favors Birchak)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Birchak)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Lopes)
BantamweightHIT
Pedro Munhoz won by Submission (R1)
Munhoz 69%31% Doane
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+1.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +178(favors Munhoz)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Munhoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Doane)
BantamweightHIT
Felipe Arantes won by Submission (R2)
Arantes 74%26% Sanders
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+14.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +166(favors Arantes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Arantes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Sanders)
LightweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by Submission (R1)
Burns 67%33% Sajewski
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +363(favors Burns)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Burns)
BantamweightHIT
Marco Beltran won by Submission (R2)
Beltran 67%33% Vieira
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 45% (+21.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +161(favors Beltran)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Vieira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Beltran)
WelterweightMISS
Vicente Luque won by Submission (R2)
Luque 35%65% Mendoza
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -171(favors Mendoza)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Mendoza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mendoza)