UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Saturday, June 18, 2016·Ottawa, Ontario, Canada·13 fights
Model: 12/13(92%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Stephen Thompson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Thompson 53%47% MacDonald
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+4.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +110(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Thompson)
WelterweightHIT
Donald Cerrone won by KO/TKO (R3)
Cerrone 67%33% Cote
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+8.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +365(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Cote)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Steve Bosse won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bosse 65%35% O'Connell
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEANMarket: 56% (+8.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +111(favors Bosse)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors O'Connell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors O'Connell)
LightweightHIT
Olivier Aubin-Mercier won by Submission (R3)
Aubin-Mercier 85%15% Gouti
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+8.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +393(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Aubin-Mercier)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Joanne Wood won by KO/TKO (R3)
Wood 57%43% Letourneau
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 40% (+17.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -158(favors Letourneau)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Wood)
LightweightHIT
Jason Saggo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Saggo 55%45% Silva
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 53% (+2.1% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -48(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Saggo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Saggo)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Misha Cirkunov won by Submission (R3)
Cirkunov 70%30% Cutelaba
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+4.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +274(favors Cirkunov)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Cirkunov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +8.0(favors Cirkunov)
MiddleweightMISS
Krzysztof Jotko won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jotko 45%55% McCrory
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+8.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -71(favors McCrory)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Jotko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors McCrory)
BantamweightHIT
Joe Soto won by Submission (R3)
Soto 59%41% Beal
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 52% (+6.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -277(favors Beal)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Soto)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Beal)
MiddleweightHIT
Elias Theodorou won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Theodorou 85%15% Alvey
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+15.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -192(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Theodorou)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Randa Markos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Markos 62%38% Jones-Lybarger
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
LEANMarket: 55% (+6.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -10(favors Jones-Lybarger)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Markos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Markos)
WelterweightHIT
Colby Covington won by Submission (R3)
Covington 83%17% Meunier
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+13.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +294(favors Covington)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Covington)
FlyweightHIT
Ali Bagautinov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bagautinov 72%28% Herrera
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+2.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +108(favors Bagautinov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Bagautinov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Bagautinov)