UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Saturday, June 18, 2016·Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Model Record: 11/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Stephen Thompson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Thompson 58%42% MacDonald
LEANMarket: 48% (+9.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +140(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Thompson)
WelterweightHIT
Donald Cerrone won by KO/TKO (R3)
Cerrone 65%35% Cote
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+7.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +249(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Cote)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Steve Bosse won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bosse 58%42% O'Connell
LEANMarket: 56% (+1.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +55(favors Bosse)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors O'Connell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors O'Connell)
LightweightHIT
Olivier Aubin-Mercier won by Submission (R3)
Aubin-Mercier 90%10% Gouti
STRONGMarket: 77% (+13.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +225(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Aubin-Mercier)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Joanne Wood won by KO/TKO (R3)
Wood 49%51% Letourneau
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+8.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Letourneau)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Wood)
LightweightHIT
Jason Saggo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Saggo 57%43% Silva
LEANMarket: 53% (+4.0% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -23(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Saggo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Saggo)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Misha Cirkunov won by Submission (R3)
Cirkunov 73%27% Cutelaba
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+8.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +199(favors Cirkunov)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Cirkunov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +8.0(favors Cirkunov)
MiddleweightHIT
Krzysztof Jotko won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jotko 56%44% McCrory
LEANMarket: 36% (+19.1% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors McCrory)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Jotko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors McCrory)
BantamweightMISS
Joe Soto won by Submission (R3)
Soto 43%57% Beal
LEANMarket: 52% (-9.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -196(favors Beal)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Soto)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Beal)
MiddleweightHIT
Elias Theodorou won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Theodorou 80%20% Alvey
STRONGMarket: 69% (+11.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -71(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Theodorou)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Randa Markos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Markos 53%47% Jones-Lybarger
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-2.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +5(favors Markos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Markos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Markos)
WelterweightHIT
Colby Covington won by Submission (R3)
Covington 83%17% Meunier
STRONGMarket: 69% (+13.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +184(favors Covington)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Covington)
FlyweightHIT
Ali Bagautinov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bagautinov 74%26% Herrera
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+3.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +109(favors Bagautinov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Bagautinov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Bagautinov)