UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
Sunday, May 29, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 10/12(83%)
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Main Card
BantamweightHIT
Cody Garbrandt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garbrandt 51%49% Almeida
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+13.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -59(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Garbrandt)
FeatherweightHIT
Jeremy Stephens won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stephens 55%45% Barao
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+14.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -66(favors Barao)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Barao)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Stephens)
WelterweightHIT
Rick Story won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Story 55%45% Saffiedine
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (+2.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +40(favors Story)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Story)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Story)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Camozzi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Camozzi 64%36% Miranda
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 46% (+18.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -363(favors Miranda)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Camozzi)
WelterweightHIT
Lorenz Larkin won by Decision - Split (R3)
Larkin 50%50% Masvidal
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (+0.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -70(favors Masvidal)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Larkin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Masvidal)
LightweightHIT
Paul Felder won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Felder 67%33% Burkman
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +249(favors Felder)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Felder)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Burkman)
Prelims
Women's BantamweightHIT
Sara McMann won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McMann 51%49% Eye
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-4.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -114(favors Eye)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Eye)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors McMann)
LightweightHIT
Abel Trujillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trujillo 70%30% Rinaldi
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-3.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +332(favors Trujillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Trujillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Trujillo)
MiddleweightHIT
Jake Collier won by KO/TKO (R2)
Collier 50%50% Uda
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -274(favors Uda)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Collier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Collier)
LightweightMISS
Erik Koch won by Submission (R2)
Koch 45%55% Campbell
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 43% (+1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -1(favors Campbell)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Campbell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Campbell)
BantamweightMISS
Bryan Caraway won by Decision - Split (R3)
Caraway 35%65% Sterling
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 25% (+10.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -136(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Sterling)
HeavyweightHIT
Adam Milstead won by KO/TKO (R2)
Milstead 83%17% Rocha
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
STRONGMarket: 70% (+13.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +250(favors Milstead)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Rocha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rocha)