UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
Sunday, May 29, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightHIT
Cody Garbrandt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garbrandt 53%47% Almeida
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+14.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -24(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Garbrandt)
FeatherweightHIT
Jeremy Stephens won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stephens 58%42% Barao
LEANMarket: 40% (+17.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -5(favors Barao)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Barao)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Stephens)
WelterweightHIT
Rick Story won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Story 52%48% Saffiedine
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-0.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +129(favors Story)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Story)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Story)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Camozzi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Camozzi 63%37% Miranda
LEANMarket: 46% (+16.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -177(favors Miranda)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Camozzi)
WelterweightMISS
Lorenz Larkin won by Decision - Split (R3)
Larkin 47%53% Masvidal
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (-2.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Masvidal)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Larkin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Masvidal)
LightweightHIT
Paul Felder won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Felder 65%35% Burkman
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +207(favors Felder)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Felder)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Burkman)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Sara McMann won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McMann 46%54% Eye
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-9.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -84(favors Eye)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Eye)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors McMann)
LightweightHIT
Abel Trujillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trujillo 68%32% Rinaldi
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-5.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +255(favors Trujillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Trujillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Trujillo)
MiddleweightHIT
Jake Collier won by KO/TKO (R2)
Collier 53%47% Uda
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -182(favors Uda)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Collier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Collier)
LightweightMISS
Erik Koch won by Submission (R2)
Koch 43%57% Campbell
LEANMarket: 43% (-0.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -5(favors Campbell)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Campbell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Campbell)
BantamweightMISS
Bryan Caraway won by Decision - Split (R3)
Caraway 31%69% Sterling
CONFIDENTMarket: 25% (+5.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -79(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Sterling)
HeavyweightHIT
Adam Milstead won by KO/TKO (R2)
Milstead 81%19% Rocha
STRONGMarket: 70% (+11.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +154(favors Milstead)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Rocha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rocha)