UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev lands on Saturday, March 1, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape vs Asu AlmabayevFlyweight | Manel Kape | Toss-up | 55% |
| Cody Brundage vs Julian MarquezMiddleweight | Cody Brundage | Lean | 60% |
| Nasrat Haqparast vs Esteban RibovicsLightweight | Esteban Ribovics | Lean | 58% |
| Hyder Amil vs William GomisFeatherweight | William Gomis | Confident | 67% |
| Sam Patterson vs Danny BarlowWelterweight | Danny Barlow | Lean | 63% |
| Mario Pinto vs Austen LaneHeavyweight | Austen Lane | Toss-up | 52% |
| Chepe Mariscal vs Ricardo RamosFeatherweight | Chepe Mariscal | Lean | 56% |
| Danny Silva vs Lucas AlmeidaFeatherweight | Danny Silva | Confident | 66% |
| JJ Aldrich vs Andrea LeeWomen's Flyweight | JJ Aldrich | Lean | 64% |
| Ramazan Temirov vs Charles JohnsonFlyweight | Ramazan Temirov | Toss-up | 53% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Manel Kape vs Asu Almabayev
The Flyweight matchup features Manel Kape (6-3) taking on Asu Almabayev (5-1). Kape will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Kape is rated at 1586 — 237 points above Almabayev's 1349. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Kape's knockout artist game against Almabayev's wrestler approach. Kape is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Almabayev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kape throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Almabayev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Kape has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Manel Kape over Asu Almabayev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kape at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Cody Brundage vs Julian Marquez
The Middleweight matchup features Cody Brundage (5-6) taking on Julian Marquez (3-4).
Brundage is rated at 870 — 210 points above Marquez's 660. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Brundage is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Marquez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Marquez the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Marquez throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brundage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Marquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cody Brundage over Julian Marquez. The model gives Brundage a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Nasrat Haqparast vs Esteban Ribovics
The Lightweight matchup features Nasrat Haqparast (10-4) taking on Esteban Ribovics (3-2). Haqparast will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Ribovics carries a modest Elo edge (1278 to 1235), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Haqparast rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Haqparast's striker game against Ribovics's all-rounder approach. Haqparast brings a versatile approach, while Ribovics is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Haqparast throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribovics is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ribovics has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Esteban Ribovics over Nasrat Haqparast. The model gives Ribovics a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Hyder Amil vs William Gomis
The Featherweight matchup features Hyder Amil (3-1) taking on William Gomis (4-1). Gomis is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Gomis is rated at 1279 — 268 points above Amil's 1011. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Amil throws significantly more leather — a 11.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Amil is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Gomis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: William Gomis over Hyder Amil. We're leaning Gomis here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Sam Patterson vs Danny Barlow
The Welterweight matchup features Sam Patterson (3-1) taking on Danny Barlow (2-1).
Patterson is rated at 1343 — 448 points above Barlow's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Patterson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Barlow throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Patterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Barlow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Danny Barlow over Sam Patterson. The model gives Barlow a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Mario Pinto vs Austen Lane
The Heavyweight matchup features Mario Pinto (1-0) taking on Austen Lane (1-3).
Pinto is rated at 1264 — 481 points above Lane's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lane throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Pinto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Austen Lane over Mario Pinto. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lane at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Chepe Mariscal vs Ricardo Ramos
The Featherweight matchup features Chepe Mariscal (5-0) taking on Ricardo Ramos (8-6). Ramos is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Mariscal is rated at 1275 — 447 points above Ramos's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mariscal rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.
The style clash matters here: Mariscal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ramos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mariscal the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mariscal throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mariscal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chepe Mariscal over Ricardo Ramos. The model gives Mariscal a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Danny Silva vs Lucas Almeida
The Featherweight matchup features Danny Silva (2-0) taking on Lucas Almeida (2-3).
Silva is rated at 1051 — 245 points above Almeida's 806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Danny Silva over Lucas Almeida. We're leaning Silva here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
JJ Aldrich vs Andrea Lee
The Women's Flyweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (9-6) taking on Andrea Lee (5-8).
Aldrich is rated at 1079 — 215 points above Lee's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Aldrich's striker game against Lee's all-rounder approach. Aldrich brings a versatile approach, while Lee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: JJ Aldrich over Andrea Lee. The model gives Aldrich a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Ramazan Temirov vs Charles Johnson
The Flyweight matchup features Ramazan Temirov (1-0) taking on Charles Johnson (7-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 7-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Temirov at 1242 versus Johnson at 1097. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Temirov throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Temirov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ramazan Temirov over Charles Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Temirov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.