UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
Saturday, March 1, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·10 fights
Model: 3/10(30%)
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Main Card
FlyweightMISS
Manel Kape won by KO/TKO (R3)
Kape 43%57% Almabayev
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Kape)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Kape)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.8(favors Almabayev)
MiddleweightHIT
Cody Brundage won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brundage 51%49% Marquez
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-1.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +214(favors Brundage)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Marquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Brundage)
LightweightMISS
Nasrat Haqparast won by Decision - Split (R3)
Haqparast 27%73% Ribovics
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-3.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Ribovics)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ribovics)
FeatherweightMISS
Hyder Amil won by Decision - Split (R3)
Amil 32%68% Gomis
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-2.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -172(favors Gomis)
→Striking volume advantage: +11.9(favors Amil)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Amil)
WelterweightMISS
Sam Patterson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Patterson 20%80% Barlow
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 34% (-14.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -138(favors Barlow)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Barlow)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Patterson)
HeavyweightMISS
Mario Pinto won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pinto 47%53% Lane
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +38(favors Pinto)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Lane)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Lane)
Prelims
FeatherweightMISS
Chepe Mariscal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mariscal 40%60% Ramos
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +464(favors Mariscal)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Mariscal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Mariscal)
FeatherweightHIT
Danny Silva won by Decision - Split (R3)
Silva 71%29% Almeida
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +125(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Silva)
Women's FlyweightHIT
JJ Aldrich won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldrich 64%36% Lee
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +47(favors Aldrich)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Aldrich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Lee)
FlyweightMISS
Ramazan Temirov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Temirov 45%55% Johnson
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -160(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Temirov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Johnson)