UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
Saturday, March 1, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FlyweightHIT
Manel Kape won by KO/TKO (R3)
Kape 55%45% Almabayev
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +96(favors Kape)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Kape)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.8(favors Almabayev)
MiddleweightHIT
Cody Brundage won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brundage 60%40% Marquez
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +222(favors Brundage)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Marquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Brundage)
LightweightMISS
Nasrat Haqparast won by Decision - Split (R3)
Haqparast 42%58% Ribovics
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +133(favors Haqparast)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ribovics)
FeatherweightMISS
Hyder Amil won by Decision - Split (R3)
Amil 33%67% Gomis
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -130(favors Gomis)
→Striking volume advantage: +11.9(favors Amil)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Amil)
WelterweightMISS
Sam Patterson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Patterson 37%63% Barlow
LEAN
→Elo gap: -99(favors Barlow)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Barlow)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Patterson)
HeavyweightMISS
Mario Pinto won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pinto 48%52% Lane
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +53(favors Pinto)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Lane)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Lane)
FeatherweightHIT
Chepe Mariscal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mariscal 56%44% Ramos
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +348(favors Mariscal)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Mariscal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Mariscal)
FeatherweightHIT
Danny Silva won by Decision - Split (R3)
Silva 66%34% Almeida
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +100(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Silva)
Women's FlyweightHIT
JJ Aldrich won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldrich 64%36% Lee
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Aldrich)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Aldrich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Lee)
FlyweightHIT
Ramazan Temirov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Temirov 53%47% Johnson
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -175(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Temirov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Johnson)