UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
Saturday, March 19, 2016·Brisbane, Queensland, Australia·12 fights
Model: 10/12(83%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Mark Hunt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hunt 56%44% Mir
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEANMarket: 55% (+0.5% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +50(favors Hunt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Hunt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Mir)
WelterweightHIT
Neil Magny won by KO/TKO (R3)
Magny 74%26% Lombard
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 49% (+24.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -93(favors Lombard)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Magny)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Magny)
LightweightHIT
Jake Matthews won by Submission (R3)
Matthews 65%35% Case
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 49% (+16.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -130(favors Case)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Matthews)
MiddleweightMISS
Daniel Kelly won by KO/TKO (R3)
Kelly 35%65% Junior
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENTMarket: 20% (+14.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +37(favors Kelly)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Kelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Junior)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Steve Bosse won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bosse 20%80% Huna
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 30% (-9.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -246(favors Huna)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Huna)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Huna)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Bec Rawlings won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rawlings 64%36% Ham
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 48% (+15.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +33(favors Rawlings)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Rawlings)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ham)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Alan Jouban won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jouban 89%11% O'Reilly
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+7.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +221(favors Jouban)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Jouban)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors O'Reilly)
FeatherweightHIT
Dan Hooker won by Submission (R1)
Hooker 64%36% Eddiva
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +225(favors Hooker)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Eddiva)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Leslie Smith won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smith 56%44% Nakai
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 57% (-0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -14(favors Nakai)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Nakai)
WelterweightHIT
Viscardi Andrade won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Andrade 50%50% Walsh
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+2.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +135(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Walsh)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Walsh)
LightweightHIT
Ross Pearson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pearson 51%49% Laprise
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+2.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Pearson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Laprise)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Laprise)
LightweightHIT
Alan Patrick won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Patrick 74%26% Brown
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+4.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +115(favors Patrick)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Patrick)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Patrick)