UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Saturday, March 5, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightMISS
Nate Diaz won by Submission (R2)
Diaz 37%63% McGregor
LEANMarket: 20% (+17.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -350(favors McGregor)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors McGregor)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors McGregor)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Miesha Tate won by Submission (R5)
Tate 26%74% Holm
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (-2.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -197(favors Holm)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Holm)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Tate)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ilir Latifi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Latifi 62%38% Villante
LEANMarket: 63% (-0.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +92(favors Latifi)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Villante)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Latifi)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Corey Anderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anderson 76%24% Lawlor
STRONGMarket: 72% (+3.3% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -112(favors Lawlor)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Anderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Anderson)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Amanda Nunes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nunes 56%44% Shevchenko
LEANMarket: 51% (+5.1% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +135(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Shevchenko)
WelterweightMISS
Siyar Bahadurzada won by Submission (R3)
Bahadurzada 30%70% Thatch
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (+4.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -89(favors Thatch)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Thatch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Thatch)
WelterweightMISS
Nordine Taleb won by KO/TKO (R2)
Taleb 34%66% Silva
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (+1.6% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Taleb)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Taleb)
MiddleweightHIT
Vitor Miranda won by KO/TKO (R2)
Miranda 75%25% Guimaraes
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (+1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +240(favors Miranda)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Guimaraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Guimaraes)
FeatherweightHIT
Darren Elkins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elkins 51%49% Skelly
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+10.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -145(favors Skelly)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Elkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Elkins)
LightweightHIT
Diego Sanchez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanchez 54%46% Miller
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+13.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Miller)
LightweightHIT
Jason Saggo won by KO/TKO (R1)
Saggo 73%27% Salas
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+7.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Saggo)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Salas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Saggo)
FeatherweightHIT
Teruto Ishihara won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ishihara 55%45% Erosa
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+16.6% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -83(favors Erosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Ishihara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Erosa)