UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Conor McGregor (10-3). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Diaz at 1557, McGregor at 1573. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Diaz's wrestler game against McGregor's striker approach. Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McGregor brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGregor throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. McGregor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. McGregor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Conor McGregor over Nate Diaz. The model gives McGregor a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Diaz at 20% implied while our model sees 37% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Miesha Tate (7-6) taking on Holly Holm (8-6). Holm is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Holm carries a modest Elo edge (1127 to 1077), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Tate's wrestler game against Holm's striker approach. Tate looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holm brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holm throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Holm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Holly Holm over Miesha Tate. We're leaning Holm here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ilir Latifi (9-6) taking on Gian Villante (7-10). Villante is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Latifi is rated at 1195 — 490 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Latifi's submission artist game against Villante's striker approach. Latifi is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Villante brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Latifi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Villante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ilir Latifi over Gian Villante. The model gives Latifi a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Corey Anderson (10-4) taking on Tom Lawlor (6-4). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Anderson is rated at 1459 — 254 points above Lawlor's 1205. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Anderson's striker game against Lawlor's submission artist approach. Anderson brings a versatile approach, while Lawlor is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Corey Anderson over Tom Lawlor. The model is firm on this one: Anderson at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Anderson at 72% implied while our model sees 76% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1). Nunes is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 161 points above Nunes's 1636. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nunes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Shevchenko is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nunes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Valentina Shevchenko. The model gives Nunes a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 51% implied while our model sees 56% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Siyar Bahadurzada (4-3) taking on Brandon Thatch (2-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Thatch.

Bahadurzada is rated at 1086 — 225 points above Thatch's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bahadurzada's all-rounder game against Thatch's striker approach. Bahadurzada is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thatch brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thatch throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Thatch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Thatch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Thatch over Siyar Bahadurzada. We're leaning Thatch here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Bahadurzada at 26% implied while our model sees 30% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Nordine Taleb (7-4) taking on Erick Silva (7-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Taleb at 976, Silva at 951. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Taleb's striker game against Silva's submission artist approach. Taleb brings a versatile approach, while Silva is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taleb throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Taleb is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Taleb has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erick Silva over Nordine Taleb. We're leaning Silva here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Miranda (3-3) taking on Marcelo Guimaraes (2-1). Miranda will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Miranda at 933, Guimaraes at 931. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guimaraes throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Guimaraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Guimaraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Miranda over Marcelo Guimaraes. We're leaning Miranda here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Chas Skelly (7-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Skelly at 1251 versus Elkins at 1113. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over Chas Skelly. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elkins at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Elkins at 40% implied while our model sees 51% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Jim Miller (27-17).

Miller carries a modest Elo edge (1213 to 1139), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Jim Miller. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sanchez at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Sanchez at 40% implied while our model sees 54% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jason Saggo (3-2) taking on Justin Salas (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Saggo.

Saggo is rated at 1013 — 170 points above Salas's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salas throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Saggo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Salas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason Saggo over Justin Salas. We're leaning Saggo here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Saggo at 66% implied while our model sees 73% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Teruto Ishihara (3-4-1) taking on Julian Erosa (9-7). Erosa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Erosa is rated at 1280 — 463 points above Ishihara's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Erosa has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Ishihara brings a versatile approach, while Erosa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Erosa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ishihara throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Ishihara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Teruto Ishihara over Julian Erosa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ishihara at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ishihara at 38% implied while our model sees 55% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.