UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Anderson Silva (17-6).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 368 points above Silva's 1154. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bisping's striker game against Silva's all-rounder approach. Bisping brings a versatile approach, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anderson Silva over Michael Bisping. We're leaning Silva here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Gegard Mousasi (8-3) taking on Thales Leites (12-8).

Mousasi is rated at 1761 — 585 points above Leites's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Mousasi is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Leites is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mousasi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mousasi throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Mousasi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Leites has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Thales Leites. We're leaning Mousasi here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Tom Breese (5-2) taking on Keita Nakamura (4-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Breese.

Breese is rated at 1141 — 155 points above Nakamura's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Breese is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nakamura looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nakamura the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Breese throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakamura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Breese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Breese over Keita Nakamura. The model is firm on this one: Breese at 86%. The market implies 89% for Breese, but our model sees only 86%. That 3-point gap favoring Nakamura is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brad Pickett (5-8) taking on Francisco Rivera (4-5). Rivera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rivera at 972 versus Pickett at 834. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Rivera over Brad Pickett. We're leaning Rivera here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 39% for Pickett, but our model sees only 29%. That 10-point gap favoring Rivera is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Makwan Amirkhani (7-6) taking on Mike Wilkinson (2-1). Amirkhani is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Wilkinson at 1099 versus Amirkhani at 965. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilkinson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Amirkhani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.6 more per 15 minutes. Wilkinson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Makwan Amirkhani over Mike Wilkinson. We're leaning Amirkhani here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Amirkhani at 62% implied while our model sees 71% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Davey Grant (8-6) taking on Marlon Vera (15-9).

Vera is rated at 1460 — 260 points above Grant's 1200. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Davey Grant over Marlon Vera. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grant at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Grant, but our model sees only 50%. That 12-point gap favoring Vera is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Scott Askham (2-3) taking on Chris Dempsey (1-2). Askham is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Askham at 890 versus Dempsey at 770. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dempsey throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dempsey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Dempsey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Askham over Chris Dempsey. The model is firm on this one: Askham at 79%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Arnold Allen (11-2) taking on Yaotzin Meza (2-3).

Allen is rated at 1468 — 576 points above Meza's 893. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Allen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Meza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Meza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Meza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Arnold Allen over Yaotzin Meza. The model is firm on this one: Allen at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Krzysztof Jotko (11-5) taking on Brad Scott (3-4).

Jotko is rated at 1222 — 337 points above Scott's 884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jotko's striker game against Scott's wrestler approach. Jotko brings a versatile approach, while Scott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scott throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jotko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Jotko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Brad Scott. We're leaning Jotko here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Jotko at 60% implied while our model sees 69% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Rustam Khabilov (9-3) taking on Norman Parke (5-2-1). Khabilov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Khabilov is rated at 1389 — 288 points above Parke's 1101. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Khabilov's wrestler game against Parke's striker approach. Khabilov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Parke brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parke throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Parke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Norman Parke. We're leaning Khabilov here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Khabilov at 69% implied while our model sees 74% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Omielanczuk (4-4) taking on Jarjis Danho (0-1-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Danho.

There's a real Elo separation here: Danho at 1064 versus Omielanczuk at 960. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Omielanczuk throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Omielanczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Danho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Omielanczuk over Jarjis Danho. The model gives Omielanczuk a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Omielanczuk at 53% implied while our model sees 58% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Teemu Packalen (1-2) taking on Thibault Gouti (1-4). Packalen is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Packalen at 844, Gouti at 831. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Packalen throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Packalen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Gouti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Teemu Packalen over Thibault Gouti. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Packalen at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Packalen at 46% implied while our model sees 55% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features David Teymur (5-0) taking on Martin Svensson (0-0).

Teymur is rated at 1295 — 422 points above Svensson's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Teymur rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Svensson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Svensson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Svensson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Teymur over Martin Svensson. The model gives Teymur a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.