UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Saturday, December 12, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Conor McGregor won by KO/TKO (R1)
McGregor 52%48% Aldo
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+3.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors McGregor)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors McGregor)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors McGregor)
MiddleweightMISS
Luke Rockhold won by KO/TKO (R4)
Rockhold 31%69% Weidman
CONFIDENTMarket: 44% (-12.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -334(favors Weidman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Weidman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Weidman)
MiddleweightMISS
Yoel Romero won by Decision - Split (R3)
Romero 49%51% Souza
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +117(favors Romero)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Romero)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Souza)
WelterweightMISS
Demian Maia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Maia 50%50% Nelson
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (-1.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +212(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Nelson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Maia)
FeatherweightHIT
Max Holloway won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holloway 88%12% Stephens
STRONGMarket: 83% (+5.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +245(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Stephens)
BantamweightHIT
Urijah Faber won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Faber 86%14% Saenz
STRONGMarket: 84% (+1.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +153(favors Faber)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Saenz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Saenz)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tecia Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 80%20% Jones-Lybarger
STRONGMarket: 73% (+7.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +170(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Pennington)
WelterweightMISS
Warlley Alves won by Submission (R1)
Alves 45%55% Covington
LEANMarket: 47% (-2.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Covington)
LightweightMISS
Leonardo Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 17%83% Lee
STRONGMarket: 16% (+1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Lee)
LightweightHIT
Magomed Mustafaev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mustafaev 83%17% Proctor
STRONGMarket: 77% (+6.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +61(favors Mustafaev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Proctor)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Proctor)
LightweightHIT
Yancy Medeiros won by Decision - Split (R3)
Medeiros 54%46% Makdessi
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+14.5% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -79(favors Makdessi)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Makdessi)
WelterweightMISS
Court McGee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McGee 48%52% Junior
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +252(favors McGee)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors McGee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors McGee)